Unexpectedly, the presidential race in the United States between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is neck and neck and once again the seven key swing states will decide who will be the next president of USA on 5th November.  Both candidates are trying to broaden their voter base. As I had pointed out in my earlier article in the Times of India, the contest is now about convincing the male voters to make the right choice. Recently, Barack Obama in an attempt to increase Harris‘s chance scolded the male black voters in order to make them realize what is at stake.

Kamala Harris has made considerable gains among women voters, especially black women voters who have understood that a ban on abortion means a status quo for many minorities unable to climb the social ladder because of the burden of early pregnancy. Good jobs require a long education and postponement of child-rearing till you have finished college education. But abortion rights is not the only issue on the ballot this time.

Torsten Jansen, a Danish journalist who has just returned from his long trip to the swing states in the United States, recently addressed the Danish political science students in Copenhagen. His message, after having talked to hundreds of people across the swing states like Pennsylvania, was that people want an improvement in living standards and they do not necessarily see Donald Trump as a deviation. Europeans are much more skeptical of Donald Trump as he might increase the cost of membership in NATO for them. Denmark has good reasons to be worried as Trump has floated the idea of buying Greenland from Denmark.

So what are the issues that really concern the Americans? Torsten Jansen stated that USA has been involved in many expensive wars and the general opinion among Americans is of weariness towards international wars. Hundreds of billions of dollars have been poured into endless wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Ukraine, and now in the Middle East. Americans are worried about the exorbitant costs of wars abroad when they are unable to pay the price of daily commodities, and experience rise in living costs. Add to this the costs of the recent damages caused by hurricanes in states like Florida.

The male voters, in short, do not want more billions to be sent to Ukraine and want some kind of peaceful resolution to conflicts abroad. They do not want, either, that American lives should be lost on wars that are far away from their shores. In short, male voters are beginning to think about what improves their living conditions just as female voters have realized that better abortion possibilities give them freedom to make career choices and improve their living condition. Richer states also tend to have fewer teenage pregnancies in USA.

Credible polling results are pinpointing an exceedingly closer race and it is still unpredictable who will emerge as the winner. No matter who wins, the margin will be narrow. These are the seven swing states that are definitely now going to chart a future course for US presidential election: Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The gap between the two candidates, according to the polls, is so narrow that it is anybody’s game at the moment.

The question is why has Kamala Harris not been able to capitalize on the gains of presidential debate and why has Donald Trump eventually encroached on the gap which recently favored Kamala Harris‘s chances? The answer lies among other things in being present and talking to the electorate and addressing the issues. Trump and Vance have been ferociously campaigning in these states and Kamala Harris needs to meet the common man. It is not enough to participate in national tv programs, she will have to address rallies and meet people of these states.

Secondly, both Biden and Harris will have to show willingness to put a foot down to halt further escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran. The Gulf States are increasingly worried about the prospect of their oil fields getting bombed if Iran’s oil fields are bombed by Israel in an act of retaliation. If Iran’s oil fields are bombed and if Iran bombs the Gulf’s oil fields, then oil prices will go spiraling up. The Americans would immediately feel the excruciating pain of paying higher gasoline prices. This in turn will favor Donald Trump, as people in US associate the decision of Biden’s administration as a measure of what Kamala Harris can achieve during her period as president. The foreign policy is indirectly affecting the US elections.

Thirdly, the Russians are making gains in the battlefield and any escalation in the war can have repercussions for Europe as well as US. NATO soldiers are instructing the Ukrainians in picking their targets but now Russia is getting help from North Korea. The BRICS nations are not interested in picking sides and want to stay neutral, so Russia does not stand being isolated as America had hoped. The BRICS summit will be hosted in Russia this month, and it shows that Russia will be pushing for easier access to the markets of these countries.

Among the 5% of American voters who constitute the undecided voters are many from the working class. They want desperately to know which candidate is going to secure the future jobs. Jobs which have been outsourced to China have resulted in many job losses and people who assumed that they were going to live their entire lives in these swing states have had to look for alternative jobs, which were hard to find. Cheaper goods from China and other countries prevent America from being self-reliant and increasing its industrial base. Industrial jobs and jobs with long-term guarantees are what people want in order to secure their economic lives. They do not necessarily want easier access to welfare benefits. Workers want jobs, jobs that give them enough to secure their decent standard of living. Which candidate has a better solution to this?

Finally, male voters, who are workers are eagerly asking, what is in it for me. Kamala Harris is losing male voters to Donald Trump. Does she have a plan to win these voters back? Time will tell.

Historically speaking, this election in less than a month is one of the closest ever, and it is definitely a toss-up.

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