World Markets - Thomson 158 Reuters https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com Latest News Updates Fri, 20 Sep 2024 07:56:11 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.2 Japan’s Nikkei leads gains in Asia Pacific after Wall Street soars; BOJ and PBOC hold rates https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/japans-nikkei-leads-gains-in-asia-pacific-after-wall-street-soars-boj-and-pboc-hold-rates/ https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/japans-nikkei-leads-gains-in-asia-pacific-after-wall-street-soars-boj-and-pboc-hold-rates/#respond Fri, 20 Sep 2024 07:56:11 +0000 https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/japans-nikkei-leads-gains-in-asia-pacific-after-wall-street-soars-boj-and-pboc-hold-rates/ A Japanese flag is displayed as shoppers and pedestrians walk past stores at a shopping street in Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday, Nov. 23, 2016. Tomohiro Ohsumi | Bloomberg | Getty Images Asia-Pacific markets were higher Friday with Japan’s Nikkei 225 leading gains, after Wall Street soared overnight following the Federal Reserve’s outsized rate cut. The […]

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A Japanese flag is displayed as shoppers and pedestrians walk past stores at a shopping street in Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday, Nov. 23, 2016.

Tomohiro Ohsumi | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Asia-Pacific markets were higher Friday with Japan’s Nikkei 225 leading gains, after Wall Street soared overnight following the Federal Reserve’s outsized rate cut.

The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate steady at around 0.25% — the highest rate since 2008 — at the conclusion of a two-day meeting Friday. 

Japan’s core consumer price index climbed 2.8% year on year, in line with Reuters estimates, versus a 2.7% rise in the previous month. Excluding fresh food and energy, inflation came in at 2%, versus 1.9% in the previous month.

The Japanese yen firmed 0.30% against the greenback to 142.20.

China also did not tinker with its key lending rates, with the one-year loan prime rate — which affects corporate and household loans — at 3.35% and the five-year LPR — a reference for mortgage rates — at 3.85%. 

Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 1.53% to close at 37,723.91, logging weekly gains of over 3%.

The broad-cased Topix gained 0.97% to 2,642.35.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up 1.27% as of its final hour of trade.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 edged 0.16% higher to 3,201.05, wrapping up the week with gains of 1.3% after hitting its lowest level since January 2019 last Friday.

South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.49% to finish at 2,593.37 and the small-cap Kosdaq rose 1.19% to 748.33.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 edged up 0.21% to end at 8,209.5.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes ended higher with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.26% to close at 42,025.19, crossing the 42,000 threshold for the first time.

The S&P 500 added 1.7% to end at 5,713.64, topping 5,700 for the first time.

The Nasdaq Composite surged 2.51% to finish at 18,013.98.

The three major averages are on pace for weekly gains, with the S&P 500 up nearly 1.6% through Thursday’s close. The Dow is toting a 1.5% jump on the week, while the Nasdaq is outperforming with a 1.9% advance.

—CNBC’s Lisa Kailai Han and Hakyung Kim contributed to this report.

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‘Data quality’ issues exist for emerging-market credit, says fixed-income fund manager https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/data-quality-issues-exist-for-emerging-market-credit-says-fixed-income-fund-manager/ https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/data-quality-issues-exist-for-emerging-market-credit-says-fixed-income-fund-manager/#respond Thu, 19 Sep 2024 06:57:03 +0000 https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/data-quality-issues-exist-for-emerging-market-credit-says-fixed-income-fund-manager/ ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Paul Benson of Insight Investment, BNY Investments says high-yield debt is an attractive proposition, calling it a “beautifully inefficient market”, but is cautious about emerging-market high-yield credit as a fixed-income investment. . Source link

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Paul Benson of Insight Investment, BNY Investments says high-yield debt is an attractive proposition, calling it a “beautifully inefficient market”, but is cautious about emerging-market high-yield credit as a fixed-income investment.

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Japan’s Nikkei leads gains in Asia-Pacific markets as investors digest outsized Fed rate cut https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/japans-nikkei-leads-gains-in-asia-pacific-markets-as-investors-digest-outsized-fed-rate-cut/ https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/japans-nikkei-leads-gains-in-asia-pacific-markets-as-investors-digest-outsized-fed-rate-cut/#respond Thu, 19 Sep 2024 03:11:37 +0000 https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/japans-nikkei-leads-gains-in-asia-pacific-markets-as-investors-digest-outsized-fed-rate-cut/ The Bank of Japan headquarters is seen in Tokyo on January 30, 2017. The Bank of Japan will pull the plug on its eight-year negative interest rate policy in April, according to more than 80% of economists polled by Reuters, marking a long-awaited major shift from a global outlier central bank. Kazuhiro Nogi | Afp | […]

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The Bank of Japan headquarters is seen in Tokyo on January 30, 2017. The Bank of Japan will pull the plug on its eight-year negative interest rate policy in April, according to more than 80% of economists polled by Reuters, marking a long-awaited major shift from a global outlier central bank.

Kazuhiro Nogi | Afp | Getty Images

Asia-Pacific markets rose in choppy trading Thursday, as investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by a half-percentage point.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2.49%, while the broad-based Topix climbed 2.34%. The Japanese yen weakened 0.68% to 143.24 against the U.S. dollar.

The Fed lowered its benchmark borrowing rate by a half percentage point, bringing its target range to 4.75% to 5%.

In lockstep with the Fed, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority cut its interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.25, as the city’s currency is pegged to the greenback.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 1.20%. Hong Kong-listed shares of property developer China Vanke rose 7.4%.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 was 1.29% higher, led by real estate stocks up nearly 4%.

South Korea’s blue-chip Kospi slipped 0.30% after opening higher, while the small-cap Kosdaq climbed 0.11%.

Australia’s national seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained steady in August at 4.2%, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics, in line with Reuters-polled analysts’ expectation, while employment additions at 47,500 surpassed estimates of 25,000 additions.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.35%.

New Zealand’s GDP for the second quarter contracted by 0.2% from the previous quarter, according to the official data released Thursday morning, less than Reuters poll estimates of a 0.4% decline.

Bank of Japan is poised to kick off a two-day meeting ending Friday, where the central bankers will make a key rate decision, after the central bank ended its decades-long ultra-low interest rates regime earlier this year.

Taiwan’s central bank is set to make a key rate decision Thursday, and release its revised economic growth and inflation forecasts for this year.

The Taiwan Weighted Index rose 1.01%.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.25% to 41,503.1, while the S&P 500 fell 0.29% to end at 5,618.26. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.31% to 17,573.3.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 surged to fresh highs during intraday trading before reversing course to close lower.

—CNBC’s Hakyung Kim and Samantha Subin contributed to this report.

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Nikkei falls over 2% as yen strengthens; Asia markets trade mixed ahead of Fed meeting https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/nikkei-falls-over-2-as-yen-strengthens-asia-markets-trade-mixed-ahead-of-fed-meeting/ https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/nikkei-falls-over-2-as-yen-strengthens-asia-markets-trade-mixed-ahead-of-fed-meeting/#respond Tue, 17 Sep 2024 02:53:13 +0000 https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/nikkei-falls-over-2-as-yen-strengthens-asia-markets-trade-mixed-ahead-of-fed-meeting/ Containers are loaded on the premises of the port operator PSA, the Port of Singapore Authority (PSA), at the Port of Singapore on 14 June 2022. Bernd von Jutrczenka | Picture Alliance | Getty Images Asia-Pacific stocks traded mixed on Tuesday with Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropping over 2%, as investors awaited for the Federal Reserve […]

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Containers are loaded on the premises of the port operator PSA, the Port of Singapore Authority (PSA), at the Port of Singapore on 14 June 2022.

Bernd von Jutrczenka | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Asia-Pacific stocks traded mixed on Tuesday with Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropping over 2%, as investors awaited for the Federal Reserve to kick off its monetary loosening cycle.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 2.06%, while the Topix was down 1.8% as the yen strengthened for a sixth straight session, last at 140.40 against the dollar.

The yen strengthened to 139.58 yen overnight, its weakest level since July 2023.

The Fed is expected to announce its first interest rate cut since March 2022, but markets are split over the size of the reduction from the two-day policy meeting which begins Tuesday.

U.S. retail sales data is also set to take center stage as investors monitor the health of the consumer in the lead up to the Fed’s meeting.

Traders in Asia will also parse Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports for August, which rose 10.7% from a year ago, official data showed Tuesday, while falling 4.7% from the previous month. The figures compare with a Reuters forecast of a 15% year-on-year expansion and a 3.3% month-on-month drop.

Tuesday’s economic data also includes India’s wholesale prices for August, which are anticipated to have gained 1.85% year-on-year, a cooler reading than 2.04% in July.

Shares of Chinese appliance maker Midea Group surged over 9% in their Hong Kong debut from its offer price of HK$54.80 apiece. This is the city’s largest listing in more than three years.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 1.1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.24%.

South Korea, mainland China and Taiwan’s markets were closed for a holiday.

Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.55% to a new record high at 41,622.08, tracking the rise in the S&P 500 which was up 0.13% settling at 5,633.09. If its momentum holds up, the broad-based index could notch a new all-time this week.

Meanwhile the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.52% to finish at 17,592.13, weighed down by tech stocks.

—CNBC’s Hakyung Kim and Pia Singh contributed to this report.

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It’s a big week for central banks around the world, with a slew of rate moves on the table https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/its-a-big-week-for-central-banks-around-the-world-with-a-slew-of-rate-moves-on-the-table/ https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/its-a-big-week-for-central-banks-around-the-world-with-a-slew-of-rate-moves-on-the-table/#respond Mon, 16 Sep 2024 14:28:32 +0000 https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/its-a-big-week-for-central-banks-around-the-world-with-a-slew-of-rate-moves-on-the-table/ Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announces interest rates will remain unchanged during a news conference at the Federal Reserves’ William McChesney Martin Building in Washington, D.C., on June 12, 2024. Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images A flurry of major central banks will hold monetary policy meetings this week, with investors bracing for interest rate moves […]

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announces interest rates will remain unchanged during a news conference at the Federal Reserves’ William McChesney Martin Building in Washington, D.C., on June 12, 2024.

Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images

A flurry of major central banks will hold monetary policy meetings this week, with investors bracing for interest rate moves in either direction.

The Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated two-day meeting, which gets underway Tuesday, is poised to take center stage.

The U.S. central bank is widely expected to join others around the world in starting its own rate-cutting cycle. The only remaining question appears to be by how much the Fed will reduce rates.

Traders currently see a quarter-point cut as the most likely outcome, although as many as 41% anticipate a half-point move, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.

Elsewhere, Brazil’s central bank is scheduled to hold its next policy meeting across Tuesday and Wednesday. The Bank of England, Norway’s Norges Bank and South Africa’s Reserve Bank will all follow on Thursday.

A busy week of central bank meetings will be rounded off when the Bank of Japan delivers its latest rate decision at the conclusion of its two-day meeting Friday.

Fed most likely to cut rates by quarter point, says former Cleveland Fed pres. Loretta Mester

“We’re entering a cutting phase,” John Bilton, global head of multi-asset strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.

Speaking ahead of the European Central Bank’s most recent quarter-point rate cut, Bilton said the Fed was also set to lower interest rates by 25 basis points this week, with the Bank of England “likely getting in on the party” after the U.K. economy stagnated for a second consecutive month in July.

“We have all the ingredients for the beginning of a fairly extended cutting cycle but one that is probably not associated with a recession — and that’s an unusual setup,” Bilton said.

“It means that we get a lot of volatility to my mind in terms of price discovery around those who believe that actually the Fed [is] late, the ECB [is] late, this is a recession and those, like me, that believe that we don’t have the imbalances in the economy, and this will actually spur further upside.”

Fed decision

Policymakers at the Fed have laid the groundwork for interest rate cuts in recent weeks. Currently, the Fed’s target rate is sitting at 5.25% to 5.5%.

Some economists have argued the U.S. central bank should deliver a 50 basis point rate cut in September, accusing it of having previously gone “too far, too fast” with monetary policy tightening.

Others have described such a move as one that would be “very dangerous” for markets, pushing instead for the Fed to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut.

We'd 'love' to see a 50-basis-point cut by the Fed, analyst says — here's why

“We are more likely 25 but [would] love to see 50,” David Volpe, deputy chief investment officer at Emerald Asset Management, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.

“And the reason you do 50 next week would be as more or less a safety mechanism. You have seven weeks between next week and … the November meeting, and a lot can happen negatively,” Volpe said.

“So, it would be more of a method of trying to get in front of things. The Fed is caught on their heels a little bit, so we think that it would be good if they got in front of it, did the 50 now, and then made a decision in terms of November and December. Maybe they do 25 at that point in time,” he added.

Brazil and UK

For Brazil’s central bank, which has cut interest rates several times since July last year, stronger-than-anticipated second-quarter economic data is seen as likely to lead to an interest rate hike in September.

“We expect Banco Central to hike the Selic rate by 25bps next week (to 10.75%) and bring it to 11.50% by end-2024,” Wilson Ferrarezi, an economist at TS Lombard, said in a research note published Wednesday.

“Further rate hikes into 2025 cannot be ruled out and will depend on the strength of domestic activity in Q4/24,” he added.

Traffic outside the Central Bank of Brazil headquarters in Brasilia, Brazil, on Monday, June 17, 2024.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

In the U.K., an interest rate cut from the Bank of England on Thursday is thought to be unlikely. A Reuters poll, published Friday, found that all 65 economists surveyed expected the BOE to hold rates steady at 5%.

The U.K. central bank delivered its first interest rate reduction in more than four years at the start of August.

“We have quarterly cuts from here. We don’t think they are going to move next week, with a 7-2 vote,” Ruben Segura Cayuela, head of European economics at Bank of America, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.

He added that the next BOE rate cut is likely to take place in November.

South Africa, Norway and Japan

South Africa’s Reserve Bank is expected to cut interest rates on Thursday, according to economists surveyed by Reuters. The move would mark the first time it has done so since the central bank’s response to the coronavirus pandemic four years ago.

Norges Bank is poised to hold its next meeting on Thursday. The Norwegian central bank kept its interest rate unchanged at a 16-year high of 4.5% in mid-August and said at the time that the policy rate “will likely be kept at that level for some time ahead.”

The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, is not expected to raise interest rates at the end of the week, although a majority of economists polled by Reuters expect an increase by year-end.

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Oil uptrend continues and could reach $87 https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/oil-uptrend-continues-and-could-reach-87/ https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/oil-uptrend-continues-and-could-reach-87/#respond Wed, 24 Oct 2018 14:38:21 +0000 https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/oil-uptrend-continues-and-could-reach-87/ An offshore oil platform. Cavan Images | Cavan | Getty Images The NYMEX oil chart has three technical features. They signal a continuation of the uptrend with a target near $87. However, movement toward this target is hindered by several resistance features which tend to slow the trend momentum. The first technical observation is the […]

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An offshore oil platform.

Cavan Images | Cavan | Getty Images

The NYMEX oil chart has three technical features. They signal a continuation of the uptrend with a target near $87. However, movement toward this target is hindered by several resistance features which tend to slow the trend momentum.

The first technical observation is the behavior of the Guppy Multiple Moving Average indicator. The long-term group of averages is consistently well separated, indicating strong investor support for the uptrend. When price drops, investors come into the market as buyers, supporting the trend.

There is no current evidence of compression in the long-term GMMA. Compression shows that some investors are joining in the selling activity and signals the development of a bearish outlook. Price consistently rebounds from the upper edge of the long-term GMMA and this shows continued support for the uptrend.

The second technical observation is the role of the uptrend line. From June 2017 until August 2018, the uptrend line acted as a support level. This confirmed trend strength. But in August 2018, the price fell below the trend line and this is indicative of some trend weakness.

Now the uptrend line acts as a resistance feature. Price trends to move towards the value of the trend line and then retreat away from it. And this shows some trend weakness — but it is not, by itself, an indication of an end of the uptrend.

The third technical feature is the consistent behavior of oil price as it moves in trading bands. Oil has a well-established pattern of moving in trading bands around $11 wide.

Applying trade band projection methods gave a target near $76. This has been achieved and the pullback from that price level is an expected part of the trading band pattern. A breakout above the $76 level gives an upside target near $87.

A strong bullish trend continuation is shown when price is able to move above resistance near $76 and above the value of the trend line. This would signal that the trend line is again acting as a support feature.

All the support features and the trend strength continue to suggest that oil price is experiencing a temporary retreat. The longer term trading band target is near $87, so traders will buy in anticipation of trend continuation.

The ANTSYSS trade method is used to extract good returns from this trend behavior.

Daryl Guppy is a trader and author of Trend Trading, The 36 Strategies of the Chinese for Financial Traders, which can be found at www.guppytraders.com. He is a regular guest on CNBC Asia Squawk Box. He is a speaker at trading conferences in China, Asia, Australia and Europe. He is a special consultant to AxiCorp.

For more insight from CNBC contributors, follow @CNBCopinion on Twitter.

WATCH: Here’s what drives the price of oil

Here's what drives the price of oil

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The Nikkei and the Dow are joined at the hip https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/the-nikkei-and-the-dow-are-joined-at-the-hip/ https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/the-nikkei-and-the-dow-are-joined-at-the-hip/#respond Tue, 09 Oct 2018 00:41:52 +0000 https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/the-nikkei-and-the-dow-are-joined-at-the-hip/ A cyclist rides past an electronic stock board showing a figure of the Nikkei Stock Average outside a securities firm in Tokyo, Japan, on Friday, Jan. 12, 2018.  Tomohiro Ohsumi | Bloomberg | Getty Images Coincidence in the markets can mean nothing, or it can provide a very useful trading edge. Looking at the below […]

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A cyclist rides past an electronic stock board showing a figure of the Nikkei Stock Average outside a securities firm in Tokyo, Japan, on Friday, Jan. 12, 2018. 

Tomohiro Ohsumi | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Coincidence in the markets can mean nothing, or it can provide a very useful trading edge.

Looking at the below chart, you could be excused for thinking that was the Dow for the period from September 2017 to the current date. The behavioral characteristics are the same.

However, it’s the Nikkei 225 and it’s a spitting image of the Dow. Technically, we apply the same analysis and reach the same conclusions that we would apply to the Dow even though most people would argue that the fundamental, political and economic situations are very different.

The first similarity in behavior is the strong trend rise to a peak in January 2018. Then the market sold off very dramatically. The index dipped below the lower edge of the long-term group of averages in the Guppy Multiple Moving Average indicator.

That was followed by a rapid rebound and a period of sideways movement with a slight upward bias. In recent weeks, both indexes have rallied strongly and retested the highs.

It’s not only the pattern of behavior that is the same. The dates of the peak behavior are the same. However, the detail of the daily index behavior is different in the Nikkei and the Dow, so we cannot use one index as a leading indicator of what will happen in the next day or so in the other index.

The GMMA trend in the Dow is stronger than the Nikkei trend, so there is a little more risk in the Nikkei. Dow trend strength is shown with the long-term steady separation in the long-term GMMA. It’s confirmed by the behavior of the short-term GMMA, which has not dipped into the long-term GMMA. The Nikkei trend is more volatile with two substantial tests of the long-term GMMA in April and September 2017.

The most important conclusion from this similarity in behavior is that a continued breakout in the Dow will be replicated with a similar breakout behavior in the Nikkei. Applying the same trade band projection methods to the Nikkei gives an upside target near 26,300.

Of course, a Dow collapse would also be replicated by a Nikkei collapse. The risk comes in two ways. First, it’s important to know which index leads in terms of behavior. Logic would suggest it’s the larger market, the Dow, so Nikkei traders will watch the American index for advance indications of how the Nikkei may behave.

Second, this behavioral relationship tells us that holding open positions in the Dow and the Nikkei will not provide safety often attributed to portfolio diversification because of the high level of behavioral correlation.

Despite that, the Nikkei is the better trading opportunity with a higher level of volatility and, hence, leverage. Low-to-high for the Nikkei is 18 percent compared to a 13 percent return from the Dow for the same behavioral move. The Nikkei and the Dow may be joined at the hip when it comes to behavior, but the Nikkei is moving faster.

Daryl Guppy is a trader and author of Trend Trading, The 36 Strategies of the Chinese for Financial Traders, which can be found at www.guppytraders.com. He is a regular guest on CNBC Asia Squawk Box. He is a speaker at trading conferences in China, Asia, Australia and Europe. He is a special consultant to AxiCorp.

For more insight from CNBC contributors, follow @CNBCopinion on Twitter.

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Gold may be set for a fall to $1,130 https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/gold-may-be-set-for-a-fall-to-1130/ https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/gold-may-be-set-for-a-fall-to-1130/#respond Tue, 25 Sep 2018 07:57:39 +0000 https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/gold-may-be-set-for-a-fall-to-1130/ We suggested in August that traders who went short gold in May were beginning to consider covering their short positions. The consolidation over the past few weeks has triggered short covering, but it has not encouraged new long positions. When the gold price rebounds, it tends to do so rapidly without any consolidation activity. The […]

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We suggested in August that traders who went short gold in May were beginning to consider covering their short positions.

The consolidation over the past few weeks has triggered short covering, but it has not encouraged new long positions.

When the gold price rebounds, it tends to do so rapidly without any consolidation activity. The gold price is characterized by trend rebounds from pivot point lows. Those are steep and rapid rebounds that have the characteristics of a short-term rally but also have a habit of developing into longer-term sustainable trends.

That has not developed. Gold made a plunging low in late August with a dip to $1,168. Historically, such dips have been followed by a rapid rebound, but that has not developed. Instead, there has been a period of sideways consolidation.

Evidence of a potential pivot point rally rebound includes two features.

The first bit of evidence would be a slowing of downward momentum. The range from low to high for the week is significantly smaller than the previous weekly ranges. That did develop.

The second feature indicating a potential rally would be a fast rebound with a significantly larger weekly low-to-high range: a large green candle that follows a very much smaller red candle. That did not develop and is the key clue to the continuation of the downtrend.

In other words, the consolidation pattern is a pause pattern rather than a reversal pattern.

The short-term group of averages in the Guppy Multiple Moving Average indicator were well separated. That shows traders are not optimistic about the potential for a trend change.

The long-term GMMA has crossed over and is continuing to develop steady separation. Those are bearish features that signal a continuation of the current downtrend.

The downside target is near $1,130 and is based on the value of the previous pivot point low rebound recovery in 2016.

Traders who covered shorts as the consolidation developed will now look to open short position again if the price dips below $1,180.

Traders continue to trade the retreat behavior. We use the ANTSSYS trading method for this.

Daryl Guppy is a trader and author of Trend Trading, The 36 Strategies of the Chinese for Financial Traders, which can be found at www.guppytraders.com. He is a regular guest on CNBC Asia Squawk Box. He is a speaker at trading conferences in China, Asia, Australia and Europe. He is a special consultant to AxiCorp.

For more insight from CNBC contributors, follow @CNBCopinion on Twitter.

WATCH: The Fed effect: Here’s how to play gold

The Fed effect: Here's how to play gold

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Australia’s currency decline is collateral damage in Trump’s trade war https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/australias-currency-decline-is-collateral-damage-in-trumps-trade-war/ https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/australias-currency-decline-is-collateral-damage-in-trumps-trade-war/#respond Wed, 19 Sep 2018 18:49:49 +0000 https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/australias-currency-decline-is-collateral-damage-in-trumps-trade-war/ Carolyn Hebbard | Flickr | Getty Images A few weeks ago I noted the market contradiction between the and the .The stock market was making new 10-year highs but the currency was posting significant lows. There was a contradiction, and a question arose: Who is the dominant partner in this relationship? Well the answer is […]

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Carolyn Hebbard | Flickr | Getty Images

A few weeks ago I noted the market contradiction between the and the .The stock market was making new 10-year highs but the currency was posting significant lows.

There was a contradiction, and a question arose: Who is the dominant partner in this relationship?

Well the answer is now in, and it’s the Australian dollar.

The collapse of the AUD pointed the way for the substantial retreat in the Australian market. As much as Australians like to think that U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade battles have no impact on their country, the reality is very different. Australia, a close ally of the U.S., is just so much collateral damage.

The Australian market is not immune from self-inflicted wounds, too. The misconduct in the banking and insurance sectors being revealed by the Hayne Royal Commission is undermining the companies that make up the bulk of the Australian market index.

Traders who were alert for evidence of a pullback in the Australian market went short as the Aussie dollar failed to hold support near $0.74. The AUD is a lead indicator for the Australian market.

The Australian dollar broke the long-term uptrend in April and quickly developed a substantial downtrend. It reached 12-month lows at $0.74 and rapidly reached two-year lows near $0.715.

A fall below $0.74 has a downside target near $0.715. That target is established using the support area tested in 2016 and 2017. The consolidation near $0.715 is weak. The short-term GMMA is well separated, suggesting that traders are committed sellers.

There is a low probability of a rally rebound toward $0.74. Traders fade the rally for a move toward the next support level near $0.69.

There is a weak relationship between Australian dollar weakness and U.S. dollar strength. Rather, the impact on the Australian dollar flows from revelations about the country’s financial sector and the fallout from Trump’s ramping up for tariffs. What hurts China hurts Australia and that’s before tariffs are directed specifically at Australia.

Daryl Guppy is a trader and author of Trend Trading, The 36 Strategies of the Chinese for Financial Traders, which can be found at www.guppytraders.com. He is a regular guest on CNBC Asia Squawk Box. He is a speaker at trading conferences in China, Asia, Australia and Europe. He is a special consultant to AxiCorp.

For more insight from CNBC contributors, follow @CNBCopinion on Twitter.

WATCH: A (brief) history of the world’s trade wars

A (brief) history of the world's trade wars

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Analysis suggests Hong Kong’s market is set to decline https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/analysis-suggests-hong-kongs-market-is-set-to-decline/ https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/analysis-suggests-hong-kongs-market-is-set-to-decline/#respond Tue, 11 Sep 2018 02:28:44 +0000 https://thomson158reuters.servehalflife.com/analysis-suggests-hong-kongs-market-is-set-to-decline/ Pedestrians walk past an electronic board showing the closing trade numbers of the Hang Seng Index in the Central district of Hong Kong on July 6, 2015. Isaac Lawrence | AFP | Getty Images Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index has broken two significant support features, suggesting a continuation of its downtrend —with a downside target […]

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Pedestrians walk past an electronic board showing the closing trade numbers of the Hang Seng Index in the Central district of Hong Kong on July 6, 2015.

Isaac Lawrence | AFP | Getty Images

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index has broken two significant support features, suggesting a continuation of its downtrend —with a downside target near 25,200.

The Hang Seng has the appearance of a “head and shoulders” pattern, but that isn’t valid. The right shoulder of the pattern is created by just two days of activity. The reversal is too small and too brief to be considered as a left shoulder development.

The first significant support feature to be broken is the historical support resistance level near 28,000. That is the upper edge of a trading band projection. The lower edge of the trading is the current downside target level.

The price fall below 28,000 was not a clear fall. There was consolidation around this level, and the potential for a rally rebound to develop. However, the fall below the second support feature has confirmed the downtrend.

The second support feature is the uptrend line that is projected from the anchor points in February, July and December of 2016. This is a long projection of the trend line, but it can at times provide a future support level.

The current move is a fall below the line, followed by a small rebound and retest of the line as a resistance level. The second retreat from the line confirms the continuation of the downtrend.

It is significant that the value of the trend line matches the value of the support level and that increases the significance of the fall below the two features.

The downside target is set using the width of the trading bands. The 25,200 level has acted as a strong resistance level in 2014, 2015 and in 2017. Traders will watch for consolidation to develop near the 25,200 level.

We use the ANTSSYS trading method to extract good returns from the potentially fast fall as the retreat develops. Traders will cover shorts near 25,200. A move above resistance near 28,000 shows consolidation near that level, but it is not a signal for a new rally uptrend.

Daryl Guppy is a trader and author of Trend Trading, The 36 Strategies of the Chinese for Financial Traders, which can be found at www.guppytraders.com. He is a regular guest on CNBC Asia Squawk Box. He is a speaker at trading conferences in China, Asia, Australia and Europe. He is a special consultant to AxiCorp.

For more insight from CNBC contributors, follow @CNBCopinion on Twitter.

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