From ancient empires to modern nation-states, leaders have long relied on strategic narratives to shape perceptions of their countries and define their stances on the most critical issues of the day. Vietnam, an arguably emerging middle power, has maintained a coherent and consistent strategic narrative since the end of the Cold War. Now, under the leadership of General Secretary and President To Lam, this narrative is subtly evolving.

Speaking recently at Columbia University, he emphasized that Vietnam is at “a new historical starting point, a new era – the era of the Vietnamese people’s rise.” This new discourse reflects Vietnam’s active efforts to adapt to a rapidly changing strategic environment and its desire for more substantial engagement in international affairs.

Key Elements of Vietnam’s Strategic Narrative

Strategic narratives are compelling stories that allow leaders to share with the world their nation’s identity, interests, and visions for the international order. These narratives typically contain key elements such as a nation’s historical context, core values, aspirations, and approach to international relations. They provide a framework that explains a nation’s past, justifies its present actions, and outlines its future aspirations.

The Vietnamese narrative is deeply rooted in its history of struggle for independence and national reunification. At the heart of Vietnam’s narrative is a nation that has heroically overcome centuries of colonial rule and many devastating wars to emerge as a dynamic, rapidly developing country.

Its post-war narrative therefore strongly emphasizes a commitment to reconciliation and forward-looking diplomacy, encapsulated in the principle of “more friends, fewer enemies” (“thêm bạn, bớt thù“). This approach is vividly illustrated by Vietnam’s remarkable efforts to transform challenging relationships with former adversaries into constructive partnerships (“từ cựu thù thành đối tác”). Nations that were once at war with Vietnam – including China, the United States, Japan, and France – have now all been elevated to the status of comprehensive strategic partners. 

It is worth noting that Vietnam’s ability to transcend historical grievances in favor of mutually beneficial cooperation is in part the result of a discourse that extolls values such as justice and humanity in international conduct. For instance, the recently articulated moral principle of “overcoming aggression with humanistic virtue” (“lấy chí nhân thắng cường bạo”) exemplifies Vietnam’s longstanding commitment to peaceful and ethical conduct in global affairs.

Another distinctive feature of Vietnam’s strategic narrative is its inherently optimistic spirit. Since the end of the Cold War, various Party Congress resolutions have maintained that “Peace, cooperation, and development continue to be the major trends in the world” (“Hòa bình, hợp tác và phát triển tiếp tục là xu thế lớn trên thế giới”). This relatively sanguine outlook has persisted despite ongoing conflicts and rising global nationalism in recent years, reflecting Vietnam’s enduring belief in the overall positive trajectory of international affairs. Building on this optimistic worldview, the narrative paints a vision of Vietnam as an aspiring modern, industrialized society, with ambitious goals of achieving upper-middle-income status by 2030 and high-income status by 2045. 

In its foreign policy approach, Vietnam has consistently emphasized core principles of independence, multilateralization, diversification, the importance of political trust, international integration, and support for multilateral institutions. It recognizes the vital importance of maintaining a delicate balancing act between major powers while pursuing strategic autonomy and deepening political trust with all friends and partners.

ASEAN and the United Nations feature prominently in this narrative, serving as a key platforms for Vietnam’s international engagement. This approach reflects a sophisticated blend of realist and neoliberal institutionalist thinking – recognizing the realities of power and interest-based calculations while advocating for international law and multilateral cooperation to moderate the often unforgiving nature of global politics and cultivate an environment where all nations can thrive.

One may argue that underpinning Vietnam’s consistent strategic narrative is a clear theory of success: by cultivating diverse and ever deeper diplomatic ties and being a responsible member of the international community, Vietnam can attain rapid yet sustainable development while safeguarding peace, security, and independence. In other words, Vietnam has long wagered that being a “model international citizen” is the surest path to securing its own security and prosperity in an increasingly uncertain and complex world.

The Evolution of Vietnam’s Strategic Narrative 

While maintaining the core of Vietnam’s long-standing strategic narrative, To Lam has introduced nuanced adjustments that reflect the country’s entry into what he terms a “new era.” This is evident in his recent speeches and diplomatic engagements, which emphasize Vietnam’s transformation and its readiness to adapt to a rapidly changing global context. 

For instance, at the 79th session of the U.N. General Assembly, the Communist Party of Vietnam chief highlighted the complex and dangerous international environment, characterized by egoistic nationalism, the narrowing survival and development space, as well as the proliferation of non-traditional security challenges. More importantly, he cautioned that “The risk of nuclear war, or even a third world war, has not been ruled out.”

Some of the language in this speech is relatively new, reflecting a more sobering and up-to-date assessment of global risks. In particular, it underscores Vietnam’s heightened awareness of the precarious nature of international affairs following recent regional conflicts and belief in the necessity of active diplomacy and bolstering multilateral cooperation to mitigate these risks.

Another key element in the evolving Vietnamese narrative is the emphasis on science, technology, and innovation as crucial drivers of Vietnam’s 2030 and 2045 development goals, recognizing that the window of opportunity for Vietnam to escape the “middle income trap” will only remain open for another 10 to 15 years. Consequently, To Lam consistently highlights in his remarks the role of scientific and technological advancements in achieving sustainable growth and improving people’s living standards. This focus on cutting-edge technologies, most prominently artificial intelligence (AI), reflects Vietnam’s desire to leverage innovation as a means to accelerate its development and enhance its global competitiveness.

Lastly, the Vietnamese leader has also fine-tuned the relationship between national interests and international engagement, reflecting a more nuanced theory of success within Vietnam’s strategic narrative. At Columbia University, he asserted, “We cannot achieve the above noble goals without the pure international solidarity, valuable support, and effective cooperation of the international community. Our success is your success.”

The evolved narrative still follows closely the storyline thus far yet also places greater focus on Vietnam’s potential contributions to global progress. It underscores Vietnam’s commitment to being not just a beneficiary of international cooperation, but also an active contributor to solving global challenges in this new era.

Vietnam’s Strategic Narrative: What’s Next?

Vietnam’s evolving strategic narrative, as articulated by To Lam, reflects a nation at the crossroads of global affairs. This carefully crafted story not only showcases Vietnam’s growing confidence but also demonstrates its nuanced understanding of an increasingly volatile international landscape. By emphasizing independence, multilateralism, and technological innovation, Vietnam seeks to chart a course that balances major power dynamics while aligning with pressing global priorities such as sustainable development and climate change mitigation. This approach may well enhance Vietnam’s soft power and influence in international platforms, positioning it as a responsible stakeholder in the global community.

Yet, the path ahead is likely fraught with challenges. As major power competition intensifies and global issues grow more complex, Vietnam’s ability to maintain its carefully calibrated approach will be put to the test. The narrative’s effectiveness will ultimately hinge on Vietnam’s capacity to translate its rhetoric into tangible actions – a task complicated by domestic demands and the unpredictable nature of international relations. 

Yet there is no doubt that Vietnam’s evolving strategic narrative represents a thoughtful and measured response to a world in flux. It is a story that interweaves national ambitions with pragmatic assessments of global realities, offering a vision of Vietnam as both beneficiary and contributor to international cooperation. As this narrative continues to evolve and manifest in policy decisions, it holds the potential to reshape Vietnam’s global standing and influence. The coming years will reveal whether this carefully constructed narrative can withstand the pressures of an ever-changing global order and truly usher in the “new era” that To Lam envisions for Vietnam.