The tropics are the talk of the town as we’re beginning to track a tropical wave that may eventually get a little too close to home. This weekend, we’ll be watching a tropical wave that looks to position itself between the Yucatan and Cuba with a 40% chance of developing in the next 7 days.

TRACKING THE TROPICS: Stay ahead of the storm’s impact in the Houston area with these tools from KPRC 2

This area is a concern for development because of the slow counterclockwise rotation called the Central American Gyre. The Gyre helps thunderstorms develop and add in the warm water temperatures, making it a zone for concern for tropical development.

One factor in whether it moves east or west will be how strong a trough in the jet stream is.

If it is weaker, it will push it to the west, meaning more potential problems for the Texas coast or Mexico. If the jet is stronger, it will sweep it to the east, keeping the path closer to Florida. There are still many questions about exactly whether it develops and, if it does, where it will go.

The American models continue to keep the potential storm away from the Texas coastline, instead guiding it between New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama. The final location of this storm (which will become HELENE if it forms), will continue to change so make sure to check back with us often this weekend.

While this would be ideal for Houston, the European model shows a turn to the west, which could mean more tropical trouble for us.

Houston remains under the influence of high pressure, which continues to block any significant moisture from building in.

So the bottom line is, we are still a few days away from having a starting position for the weather models to lock into and then go from there. Once they do, late this weekend, that will help to clean up some errors about “first guesses”, which is what we have for now. Be safe in the heat, keep track of the forecast, and we’ll keep updates fresh as we get more info!