DETROIT — U.S. sales of new vehicles are expected to have struggled during the third quarter amid economic and political uncertainties, as well as elevated interest rates and prices, according to industry forecasters.

Sales are projected to fall roughly 2% during the third quarter compared with the same time in 2023, to about 3.9 million vehicles sold, according to Cox Automotive and Edmunds.com. That would be a roughly 5% decrease compared with the second quarter of this year.

Analysts note that the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to cut rates was a step in the right direction, but it does not necessarily guarantee a major uptick in auto sales through the rest of the year.

“2024 has been a volatile year for the new vehicle market, and more of the same is expected in Q4,” said Charlie Chesbrough, Cox Automotive senior economist. “Affordability remains the main obstacle to a stronger market, but it is improving, so we remain optimistic on the outlook for industry sales.”

Both Cox and Edmunds expect light-duty U.S. vehicle sales to total about 15.7 million vehicles in 2024. Edmunds has maintained its guidance since the beginning of the year, while Cox lowered it from an initial forecast of 16 million.

Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ head of insights, said the current market is just too expensive for many consumers, limiting the number of Americans who can purchase a new vehicle.

“Who can afford new cars seems to be the big issue. People, on average, are having to finance $40,000 for a new car,” she told CNBC. “The new market is quite limiting for a lot of buyers.”

The average transaction price for a new vehicle is down from a year ago but remains elevated compared with historical levels at $47,870, according to Cox.

Honda Motor and Ford Motor are expected to be among the only major automakers to experience growth during the third quarter compared with a year earlier, according to forecasts. Those with the biggest losses are expected to include Stellantis, Toyota Motor and BMW.

Stellantis’ sales, which Cox forecasts to be off as much as 21% in the third quarter from a year earlier, have been in a freefall for more than a year. CEO Carlos Tavares has prioritized pricing and profits over market share, especially with the automaker’s crucial Jeep and Ram brands.

Regarding electric vehicles, sales are growing but are still slower than many had previously anticipated. Sales of EVs are expected to increase about 8% during the third quarter compared with a year earlier, according to Cox.

The projected rise in EV sales comes despite a forecast decrease in sales of 2.4% during the quarter for U.S. EV leader Tesla, Cox reports. Tesla, which has dominated EV market share for years, is expected to have its share drop below 50% for the second consecutive quarter, according to Cox.

EV sales are being heavily assisted by incentives. While average transaction prices for new EVs is anticipated to be flat year over year, incentives for the vehicles are expected to have increased, to represent 13.3% of the average transaction price of the vehicles. That’s the highest rate so far this year and more than 80% higher than incentives for traditional vehicles with internal combustion engines.

The EV incentives include an up to $7,500 federal credit from the U.S. government for consumers to purchase or lease an electric vehicle. Not all new EVs qualify for the incentive, unless they’re leased.

Automakers are rushing back into advertising during the National Football League season after a slowdown in recent years.

Toyota Motor Corporation, Hyundai Motor Company and the Detroit automakers are among those expected to capitalize on the NFL and its games as main advertising platforms in the coming months. Toyota in particular is entering football season as the “Official Automotive Partner of the NFL,” a first for the world’s largest automaker.

“There [are] so many variables that can impact budgets, but automakers are starting to pick back up,” said Ryan Briganti, head of ad sales at Paramount’s CBS Sports, which airs NFL games each week on CBS and Paramount+. “We have autos advertising across the whole portfolio.”

The automotive industry significantly pulled back advertising and marketing budgets in recent years because it did not have enough vehicles to sell. The Covid-19 pandemic and supply chain problems caused historically low vehicle inventory levels. But vehicle inventory levels have been growing amid high interest rates and economic fears, and automakers are turning to live sports, especially the NFL, to help promote new products.

General Motors, for one, expects to increase advertising spend by more than $400 million during the second half of the year compared to the first six months to promote new or redesigned vehicles. GM declined to discuss details of the spending, including how much of that amount is specifically tied to NFL advertising, but reiterated it remains significantly lower than historic levels.

The NFL is a crucial piece of advertising strategy for automakers. During last year’s NFL season, from September to February, about 44% of the automotive ad spend budgets in national TV were for the NFL, according to media planning and data company Guideline. That compares to 31% of budgets across all sectors, the company reports. 

“The impact of the NFL on the automotive advertising industry is really very, very substantial,” said Alberto Leyes, head of product strategy at Guideline. 

NFL games dominate viewership on traditional TV. Last year’s NFL regular season games averaged 17.9 million viewers, according to Nielsen. The Super Bowl, meanwhile, drew 123.7 million average viewers. 

The NFL’s consistent viewership — despite customers fleeing the pay TV bundle — has led to a surge in the value of its media rights deals, which have in turn been a significant driver of NFL team valuations. Today, an NFL team is worth an average of $6.49 billion, according to CNBC’s Official 2024 NFL Team Valuations.

The advertising market overall has shown signs of a rebound this year, particularly for streaming and digital players. Across the board, live sports still fetch the most significant ad spends, downturn or not.

“We’ve seen a much stronger growth in 2024 than we’ve seen in any of the post-Covid years,” Leyes said regarding overall media spend. “We know we are going to have a strong second half of the year as well, with the return of NFL.”

Last NFL season, automakers were the most-seen brand industry, with more than 10% of TV ad impressions, according to ad data company iSpot. 

Disney, which airs “Monday Night Football” on its TV networks and streaming, namely ESPN, has seen “positive, continuous double-digit growth over the last five years” when it comes to automakers’ ad spending, said Andrew Messina, senior vice president of sales at Disney Advertising. Messina noted growth especially from Hyundai, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan Motor and Chrysler parent Stellantis.

Brands have also begun expanding commitments to include sponsorship opportunities alongside ad spots, Messina said. 

Automakers own “key marketing real estate” on “Sunday Night Football,” which airs on Comcast’s broadcast network NBC and streaming service Peacock, said Mark Marshall, NBCUniversal’s chairman of global advertising and partnerships. While traditional TV still drives the dominant share of auto ads, there has been an increased presence on Peacock, which has streamed exclusive NFL games in the past year. 

Guideline reports viewership of NFL broadcasts grew about 7% over the past season, whereas ad spend in NFL programming doubled that pace at 14%. Automotive ad spend increased 17% over the past two seasons and is expected to increase again this year, according to Leyes.

“For auto brands in particular, we’ve seen 139% year-over-year growth as they look to be more precise with their media spend in a complex U.S. market,” said Jenny Wall, chief marketing officer at TV measurement company VideoAmp.

Toyota, as the “Official Automotive Partner of the NFL,” launched a new ad campaign for the NFL season this week called “Roll Deep.”

It debuted an “anthem spot” for the campaign. Toyota also had a prominent role in the NFL’s first game of the season Thursday night.

For Toyota, it kicks off what will be a “season-long schedule of content across linear broadcast, digital, paid social and in-game formats,” the automaker said. 

Toyota decided on the new partnership with the NFL after an overall review of its marketing and advertising spend, according to Dedra DeLilli, vice president of Toyota North America marketing communications.

The automaker had previously advertised and run sponsorships around NFL games, but felt the best value for its media spend was in upping the partnership to become the official automotive sponsor of the league.

“The most appealing aspect of this partnership is we have access to 218 million highly diverse, highly engaged fans of the NFL. That’s almost 72% of the population. You are not going to find scalability and diversity like that in any other U.S. sport,” DeLilli said.

“It’s a match made in heaven,” she said.

DeLilli declined to disclose Toyota’s ad spend for the NFL. It follows a successful partnership with the Olympics and Paralympics this year in Paris.

Stellantis is expected to soon launch new ads for the NFL season, including around its Jeep brand, but a spokeswoman declined to provide additional details.  

Hyundai will continue to have a prominent role during NFL broadcasts, including as presenting sponsor of NBC’s Sunday Night Football kickoff show for the seventh consecutive year.

The company declined to provide details of its spending plans, but Hyundai Motor America CEO Randy Parker said the company’s spend is expected to be level from last year.

“We want to catch consumers when they’re watching television live,” he told CNBC. “We do think from a strategic perspective that’s really, really important. … Especially sporting events, you can see the number of eyeballs increase year over year over year.”

Disclosure: Comcast owns NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC. NBCUniversal owns NBC Sports and NBC Olympics. NBC Olympics is the U.S. broadcast rights holder to all Summer and Winter Games through 2032.