The crystal clear waters and picturesque headlands of Queensland’s coast may seem a long way from busy polling booths.

But the outcome of today’s election could impact some of the best surf breaks in the world.

Noosa, Snapper Rocks, Kirra, and Burleigh are high on the list of any surfer’s dream destinations.

They are also among the country’s most popular tourism hubs and are under constant threat from developers.

These beaches have the symbolic protection of a plaque and a handshake agreement to not build anything that would ruin the waves, but there is no guarantee future leaders will honour the deal. 

Path to surf reserve

Back in 2016, the 16 kilometres of coastline between Burleigh Heads and Snapper Rocks became a World Surfing Reserve, in response to a controversial proposal to build an offshore cruise ship terminal at Kirra that surfers argued would destroy the southern Gold Coast’s famed sand-bottom point breaks.

The 5km stretch from the Noosa River around the National Park headland to Sunshine Beach followed soon after.

Reserves have been established at 12 of the globe’s premier surfing locations, recognising their environmental, cultural and economic significance, and protecting the waves from development.

While the title of World Surfing Reserve is ceremonial, most jurisdictions have gone on to enshrine them in law — similar to protections provided to national and state parks.

Queensland has not.

Broken promises

The state government failed to deliver on a promise of legal protection for the Gold Coast and Noosa World Surfing Reserves.

Former Queensland premier Annastacia Palaszczuk declared the legislation was a “top priority” during an international surfing conference on the Gold Coast in February 2020 and doubled down on the commitment during the election campaign that year.

The Labor government was re-elected but after four years of consultation, ministerial roundtables, discussion papers, draft policies, and an interdepartmental working group, there is still no legal protection for some of Australia’s most celebrated waves.

A new protection policy — to be implemented through an amendment to the coastal development and tidal works code under the Planning Act — was approved in July but was not signed off before the government entered caretaker mode for the election.

It would function as an additional layer of red tape for any development that could adversely affect wave formation.

A letter sent by Premier Steven Miles last month assured the Gold Coast World Surfing Reserve the policy would be finalised next term.

Labor is widely tipped to lose the election, but recent polling suggests the race has tightened.

Uncertain future

The chair of the Gold Coast World Surfing Reserve, Andrew McKinnon, has led the decade-long campaign for protection of the waves and remains optimistic a new government would honour the legislation.

“I would like to see this as a bipartisan thing; it shouldn’t be political,” he said.

“It is such a valuable asset and it’s not only the Gold Coast we are talking about here, it’s Noosa as well.”

The Gold Coast council has never been a fan, voting unanimously to voice its “strong opposition” to legislation of the World Surfing Reserve when it was announced, because of fears it could be used to block development on the beachfront.

While some councillors have since softened their stance, the city’s Mayor Tom Tate has not and said he hoped the legislation “gets shredded”.

“When we supported it, we honoured the title of world surfing reserve but there was not to be any future legislation whatsoever,” he said.

“My attitude is they should stick to what they agreed on.”

The LNP would not commit to supporting Labor’s policy in its current form, meaning legal protection of the surf breaks could be delayed or scrapped altogether.

“Labor badly let down surfers when they broke a promise to protect Burleigh’s iconic break,” the LNP’s Burleigh candidate and former councillor Hermann Vorster said.

“If elected this Saturday, I’ll work with the surfers and the council to see whether the proposed policy makes sense or needs a fresh look.”

They are called priority development areas, but this Queensland election the residents in rapidly developed communities halfway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast feel anything but a priority.

Queensland’s major parties promise to build one million new homes if elected but those plans come with a warning from two of Queensland’s newest communities in “priority development areas” (PDAs) — don’t plan new cities with only one road in and one road out.

New cities of Yarrabilba and Flagstone, south of Logan City, have experienced rapid growth and once complete, are expected to be home to 50,000 and 150,000 respectively.

Residents hampered by only one road access are calling on leaders to prevent the problem from occurring again.

Yarrabilba’s population is now home to more than 12,690 people as of June 2023.

The main road in and out often causes a traffic headache for residents, causing concerns about travelling to and from work, school drop off, and during bushfires and floods.

A second exit for Yarrabilba is currently under construction, and design on the connection to Waterford-Tamborine Road near Dollarbird Drive is near completion, but residents say it has taken too long.

Local resident Liz, who did not want to use her surname, moved to the priority development area in mid-2017 and said, since then, congestion had worsened.

“There are days I’ve had to call in sick to work or unable to attend because a crash is that bad, I’m not going to get there until midday because they’re still trying to clear,” she said.

The constant worry of getting caught in traffic intensified when her mother was recently in hospital before she died.

She believed the next elected government should make it mandatory for greenfield sites to have multiple road exits before people can move in.

Calls to tie roads to population growth 

Wendy Buchanan owns a family day care in Yarrabilba where she has lived since 2016.

She recalls a time when there was an accident on nearby Waterford-Tamborine Road and Camp Cable Road, and it took her an hour and 20 minutes to drive 2 kilometres home.

Ms Buchanan said the lack of infrastructure was frustrating.

“I think it should reach perhaps a certain limit of the amount of people living here to warrant more road access,” she said.

The local candidate for the LNP, Matthew Owens, has recently distributed corflutes saying “Yarrabilba needs a second exit”.

The local Labor MP, Linus Power, said he backed residents’ calls for a second exit and would continue to push for the current construction to be completed on time.

Twenty minutes drive to the west of Yarrabilba is Flagstone, estimated to be home to more than 7,530 people.

An additional road access into Greater Flagstone is planned for New Beith Road, but a section of the road is awaiting approval from the federal environment department because it is located within koala habitat.

Amid delays to the New Beith Road project, a third access is being planned for Mountain Ridge Road Connection, including a new rail overpass bridge and a new two-lane connector road.

Danielle van Veen runs a family day care centre in Flagstone.

She said seemingly never-ending roadworks around Flagstone created regular traffic bottlenecks.

“It’s a worry when it comes to floods, fires, to how we’re all going to safely get out as we get bigger and bigger,” she said.

“I’m afraid to go anywhere in the afternoon after 3pm because getting home is insane.”

Ms van Veen said it was frustrating that despite involvement from the developers and local, state and federal government, it seemed unclear as to who was responsible for delivering the second road and why it had taken so long.

Ms van Veen said if Flagstone had been fully developed before people moved in, she feared it would not have been affordable for the majority of people who lived there.

Mitch Arrowsmith has lived in Flagstone for seven years and travels to Brisbane and the Gold Coast for work.

For Mr Arrowsmith, the issue went beyond having one road in and out.

“Fixing the road is just one thing, it’s the fact that we’ve all got to drive somewhere,” he said.

“That’s why everyone is on the road, they all have to drive to work, they could ease congestion by having local jobs for people.”

Billions in pipeline for Flagstone road access

A statement from an LNP spokeswoman, responding to concerns from Yarrabilba and Flagstone residents, said the LNP was committed to working with the local government.

“[The LNP] has committed $2 billion for an infrastructure fund that is designed to deliver critical infrastructure for new housing developments including roads,” she said.

“We have already had some discussions with Logan City Council about opportunities and look forward to working with them on new roads and other infrastructure needed for growing communities.”

Jordan MP Charis Mullen said she had long campaigned for a second exit for Flagstone, and the Miles government was investing more than $87 million in delivering several infrastructure projects to improve access and traffic concerns.

It includes $25 million for the delivery of New Beith Road and $13.2 million for the delivery of Mountain Ridge Road Connection.

Four years ago, Labor achieved what many political pundits considered impossible — turning two long-held blue seats red in South East Queensland.

Now the Sunshine Coast electorates of Caloundra and Nicklin are again setting the scene for another knife-edge battle, which could ultimately determine who will hold government.

Labor MP Rob Skelton holds Nicklin by the slimmest of margins at 0.01 per cent, having won the seat by just 84 votes in 2020.

Just a short drive south, his Labor colleague MP Jason Hunt is also feeling the pressure with a 2.5 per cent margin.

Jason Hunt defied the odds in 2020 by winning the Caloundra seat held by retiring LNP member Mark McArdle for 16 years.

Both electorates are considered working class with the median weekly household incomes below the state and national averages.

Small businesses under pressure

In Nicklin’s Woombye, the cost of living and pressure on small businesses to stay afloat is weighing heavily on voters.

When cafe owner Rebecca Galler recently faced rising operational costs, like many other small business owners, she said she had no choice but to work harder.

“We’ve worked too hard and come this far to be pushed under and priced out,” Ms Galler said.

“I’ll be voting for the candidate that understands small business.”

Nicklin is also a region packed with young families.

The median age of residents is 44, according to the latest Census data.

When Kenilworth stay-at-home mum Cassia Knight reflected on the upcoming election, an issue she did not expect to weigh so heavily on her mind was women’s rights.

“It’s a huge, simple step and if freedom of choice is taken away from women, we’re on a slippery slope to where the US is now … It’s scary.”

Concerns over big growth

When retiree Graeme Smith moved to Caloundra eight years ago, he loved the region’s natural beauty.

With the recent population boom, livability has become a key issue for him.

The electorate has experienced the biggest annual population growth for any regional centre, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

“Being able to move around has become much more difficult,” Mr Smith said, noting the lack of infrastructure for walking and cycling.

Mr Smith said he was also concerned about environmental issues such as water quality in the Pumicestone Passage.

“Governments have taken the easy way out because it’s managed under the marine park,” he said.

“But without proper management, in 50 years we won’t have it.

“The waterways need proactive management — it’s an urgent matter.”

Nicklin on a knife edge

Spanning 686 square kilometres, the Nicklin seat covers the hinterland communities of Cooroy, Yandina, Nambour, Woombye, Palmwoods, Mapleton and Kenilworth.

Nicklin was held by Independent Peter Wellington for 19 years from 1998 until his retirement in 2017 when Marty Hunt first won the seat for the LNP.

He was then defeated by Mr Skelton in 2020 but is returning as an LNP candidate for Saturday’s election.

Mr Skelton joined the Navy in 1995 after finishing school in Townsville.

He transferred to the RAAF to train as an aviation firefighter in 2002 before moving to the region.

Marty Hunt, a long-serving Queensland Police officer, has strong ties to the local area, particularly through his work in the Nambour Police Citizens Youth Club, which has made him a prominent figure in the community.

Alongside Mr Skelton and Marty Hunt, Nicklin candidates also include Phillip Eschler (Family First), Sue Etheridge (The Greens), Rebecca McCosker (One Nation), Steve Dickson (Independent), and Melody Lindsay (Legalise Cannabis Queensland).

Steve Dickson, a former MP and ex-One Nation leader, re-entered politics after stepping down in 2018 following a scandal in a US strip club.

In 2020, Labor showed strength in polling places like Mapleton, while the LNP dominated early and postal votes.

Battle for seaside seat

Caloundra, on Queensland’s southern Sunshine Coast, covers a mix of coastal communities like Golden Beach, Pelican Waters and Currimundi, as well as hinterland areas such as Landsborough and Beerwah.

The retirement of LNP MP Mark McArdle made the seat marginal in 2020 but there were few expectations that Labor would gain a 5.9 per cent swing and win.

The 2020 election saw Labor perform well in polling places like Baringa, but with a historically conservative voter base, the LNP is expected to put up a strong challenge in the election.

Labor’s Jason Hunt is a former custodial officer and the LNP’s Kendall Morton is a local business leader and mother of four.

In addition to Jason Hunt and Mr Morton, Caloundra’s 2024 candidate line-up includes Mike Jessop (Independent), Ben Storch (One Nation), Peta Higgs (The Greens), Pamela Mariko (Animal Justice Party), and Allison McMaster (Legalise Cannabis Queensland).

Mike Jessop, an Independent candidate for Caloundra, is facing criminal and weapons charges. He has denied all charges.

Outside of the Rockhampton showgrounds, Bill Cameron has just cast his vote.

He wishes it was his last for a while, but it’s not.

After next weekend’s Queensland election Mr Cameron knows there’s a federal election coming down the track.

But with polls suggesting there is a mood for change in the Labor-held Sunshine State, some politicians may be glad there is a few months of breathing space before voters head back to the booths.

Flight to ‘affordable’ regions?

Mr Cameron lives in one of Queensland’s “cheapest cities” to buy a home.

But surging property prices and rent for younger members of his family are a prime concern.

“They have to get a deposit to buy houses and that’s getting further and further out of their reach,” he says.

He’s not alone among voters at early polling in Central Queensland, about 700 kilometres north of Brisbane, nominating housing and the cost of living as their major worries. 

“[These are] obviously the political fault lines in Australian politics right now,” says Tony Barry, director of polling company RedBridge Group.

“There’s a lot of grievance in the electorate … that fuels a mood for change,” Mr Barry says of internal polling his company has conducted.

“That’s a problem for Albanese and the federal Labor government.”

Will booting Miles calm electors? 

Federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has visited his home state to campaign with David Crisafulli, who polls suggest will be the next Queensland premier.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has done the same with Premier Steven Miles but the situation might not be quite as rosy.

While Mr Miles has been throwing cost of living “Hail Marys” like free school lunches, Mr Barry says they don’t seem to be connecting with voters.

And if the Miles Government is voted out, the former Liberal Party strategist says it might not be enough to calm the mood of voters before the federal election.

“The old adage ‘bring out your baseball bats’ probably won’t help the federal government too much at this stage,” Mr Barry says.

“In fact, with a new Coalition government in place at a state level that will give them a bigger microphone to prosecute for change at a federal level.”

No more low-hanging fruit

Queensland is often a key to winning federal polls because it’s home to 30 seats. But Labor holds just five, and all of those are around Brisbane.

This means the federal Coalition can’t get much more political milage out of Queensland, says Griffith University political analyst Paul Williams.

“There’s no low-hanging fruit left for the LNP to pick off a Labor tree.” 

However, Dr Williams says there is a sense that Labor’s brand is damaged in Queensland. 

The party received a swing against it at recent council elections in Brisbane, where Labor has not been in power for 20 years. 

“We know Labor’s brand has haemorrhaged,” Dr Williams says.

Labor’s northern bolthole

In Labor’s state stronghold of Townsville, 1,400km north of Brisbane, there could be some change at a state level.

Dr Maxine Newlands, a principal research fellow at James Cook University, says the three seats that immediately surround the city — Townsville, Thuringowa and Mundingburra, a seat once held by Mr Crisafulli — could be in play.

She says the most pressure will likely be on Thuringowa, where there has been a high level of early voting.

“People have made their mind up, and during a lot of the local elections people were voting for the independents and the more right-leaning parties,” Dr Newlands says.

She says crime is “always up there” as an issue in North Queensland, and the late entry of reproductive rights on the agenda could be gaining traction.

If there are losses in the north she says Labor will be keen to win them back, but a fourth term for Labor at a state level could be too much for voters.  

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An undeveloped coastal headland at the centre of a decades-long community campaign to make it a public conservation park has been sold under the noses of both sides of Queensland politics.

Taylor Point, an 18-hectare coastal property in the upmarket Cairns suburb of Trinity Beach, had been listed for sale with an $8 million price tag for more than two years.

If it won the state election, the Liberal National Party had promised to work with the Cairns Regional Council to buy the site and make it a public urban conservation area.

Labor MP Craig Crawford, who has described a public purchase of Taylor Point as his top priority in the fight to retain his marginal seat of Barron River, was on the verge of announcing a similar election commitment this week.

However, it has emerged that the property has been sold to a private buyer, the Macernis Group.

The group said it was “committed to protecting, repairing and preserving Taylor Point, ensuring its survival for future generations”.

Audrius Macernis, sole director of the company that was registered last month, said he had been eyeing Taylor Point since earlier this year, but that the decision to buy it was “not about financial gain”.

He said settlement on the property was due next week.

The 45-year-old Lithuanian-born inventor of security latches and fence parts said he intended to rehabilitate the property’s natural environment before allowing public access.

When the ABC visited the property on Wednesday, Mr Macernis was wearing a hi-vis vest and collecting rubbish.

The new owner has erected barriers and signage to keep visitors off the property.

Mr Macernis said he was working to rehabilitate the “scars” left by four-wheel drives and burnt-out cars.

“Things are changing.”

Quiet deal stuns major parties

The deal has taken the state government and opposition in the seat of Barron River by surprise.

The seat is often regarded as a bellwether and is held by Labor on a margin of 3.1 per cent.

If re-elected, Mr Crawford said Labor was prepared to commit $10 million to buy and restore the property should the sale fall through, or if Mr Macernis decides to sell.

He did not rule out a “nuclear option” of compulsory acquisition.

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The Labor MP said he would be prepared to offer government financial support to the Macernis Group “if they’re genuine about [conservation]”.

Sam O’Connor, the LNP’s environment spokesman, said the sale left the community “with even more uncertainty”.

“If [the government] were serious about it, they would’ve got it happening a lot sooner,” he said.

Mr Macernis said the property was “not for sale”.

Future development potential

The Cairns Regional Council has recently issued a development permit for operational works associated with the construction of six residential lots on the site.

However, Mr Macernis said he did not believe in dividing Taylor Point, describing it as a “diamond”.

He intends to eventually build himself a home on the land, along with visitor accommodation that is “very respectful with nature”.

Mr Macernis said he would also work with environmental scientists and local volunteers to replant native species, restore habitat and stabilise the soil.

“First, I want to make sure Taylor Point is protected, repaired and preserved and whatever happens later on, I will be blessed,” he said.