Here’s a look at everything we know about the potential Israeli military action against Iran, and the events that have brought the countries to this point.

When will the strikes take place?

We don’t know.

During an earlier exchange of airstrikes in April, Israel only waited about five days to respond to a similar Iranian attack.

But various factors may have dictated a longer lead-up to a response this time around, including talks between Israel and the Biden administration, the arrival of a US air defence system and the Jewish holidays. The upcoming US election could also have an impact on Israeli timing.

Two classified US intelligence documents that were leaked last week describe satellite images of Israeli military preparations for a potential strike on Iran, and offer an insight into American concern about those plans. One document described recent exercises that appeared to rehearse elements of a strike, while the second details how Israel is shifting the placement of its missiles and weapons in case Iran responds to another strike. (The FBI said Tuesday that it was investigating the document leak.)

What are the potential Israeli targets?

Analysts say there are several categories of targets. Israel could try to balance its strategic goals after severely weakening Iran’s proxy forces – Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip – with concerns from its allies, particularly the United States, that a new attack could set off a wider regional war.

The Israeli Government has told the Biden administration that it will avoid striking Iran’s nuclear enrichment and oil production sites, two officials said. The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy, said that Israel had agreed to focus its attack on military targets in Iran.

Avoiding nuclear or oil infrastructure sites would reduce the likelihood of an all-out war between the two adversaries, amid concerns in Washington over being dragged into a bigger Middle East confrontation with the presidential election less than two weeks away.

What are Israel’s military capabilities?

If Israel wants to use its powerful air force to retaliate, its planes would have to fly long distances. But it has recently shown that it could do so.

In assaults against the Houthis in Yemen at the end of September, Israeli forces flew more than 1600km to attack power plants and shipping infrastructure, using reconnaissance aircraft and dozens of fighter jets that had to be refuelled midflight. An attack on Iran would require similar range.

Iran has much stronger air defences than Lebanon and Yemen, but Israel has showed that it may have an edge.

In April, in retaliation for Iran’s first missile barrage, an Israeli airstrike damaged an S-300 anti-aircraft system near Natanz, a city in central Iran critical to the country’s nuclear weapons programme. Western and Iranian officials said that Israel had deployed aerial drones and at least one missile fired from a warplane in that attack.

That strike showed that Israel could bypass Iran’s defensive systems and paralyse them.

“I think it’s likely they’ll mimic the April operation and try to take out Iran’s early warning systems and air defences to make way for an air attack,” Grant Rumley, a former Pentagon official and a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said in an earlier interview. “The question will be how extensive and whether they’ll go into Iranian airspace.”

According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, Israel also has other options: Jericho 2 medium-range ballistic missiles that can fly about 2000 miles, and Jericho 3 intermediate-range ballistic missiles that can reach targets more than 6400km away.

What is the US government’s stance?

President Joe Biden said this month that he would not support an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites.

Biden replied in the affirmative last week when asked whether he knew when Israel would strike and what kind of targets it had chosen. He gave no details, but his response implied that the United States and Israel may have reached an agreement on the matter. Secretary of State Antony Blinken held a lengthy meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday.

Some analysts argue that the looming US presidential election makes it harder for the United States to influence and potentially limit any possible Israeli action. They say that the fact that Biden is not seeking a second term could also weaken his hand in terms of influencing Israeli action.

How have Israel and Iran arrived at this point?

For decades, Iran and Israel engaged in what amounted to a secret war. Iran has used proxy forces including Hamas and Hezbollah to attack Israeli interests and Israel has assassinated senior Iranian officials and nuclear scientists, as well as staging cyberattacks. That conflict burst into the open this year.

In April, Iran launched a barrage of missiles and drones at Israel, attacking the country directly for the first time in retaliation for a strike by Israel on an embassy compound in the Syrian capital, Damascus, that killed three top Iranian commanders. Israel mainly thwarted the Iranian missile barrage using its air defences, assisted by the United States and other allies, and then responded with an attack of its own.

Then, in late July, Israeli jets killed a top commander of the Iranian-backed group Hezbollah in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, in retaliation for a rocket attack that killed at least 12 people. One day later, Hamas’ political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in an explosion in Iran’s capital, Tehran.

The Iranian Government and Hezbollah vowed to retaliate but, to the surprise of many, Iran took no immediate action.

When it launched its missile barrage October 1, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it was retaliating for the assassination of Haniyeh and also for the killing in late September of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, as well as for the killing of an Iranian commander.

Days after Nasrallah’s death, Israel invaded southern Lebanon, pummelling Hezbollah, Iran’s most important proxy.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

Written by: Matthew Mpoke Bigg

Photographs by: Avishag Shaar-Yashuva and Arash Khamooshi

©2024 THE NEW YORK TIMES

Both say the activities were believed to be in preparation for a strike on Iran.

“We cannot definitively predict the scale and scope of a strike on Iran and such a strike can occur with no further GEOINT warning,” one document cautions.

GEOINT is a military acronym for geospatial intelligence, which mostly relies on satellite images but can also include signal intercepts.

The document adds: “We have not observed indications that Israel intends to use a nuclear weapon,” saying a recent dispersal of Israel’s Jericho II medium-range ballistic missiles, which are believed to have been built as nuclear delivery systems, was probably defensive.

Notes are ‘US assessment of events’

The US does not publicly acknowledge the existence of Israel’s nuclear arsenal, which Israel itself has never admitted to.

The second document described two large Israeli Air Force exercises including refuelling aircraft and an early warning aircraft.

The Telegram channel said the documents initially appeared in a separate private group with 7000 members.

“We also reiterate that we have no connection to the original source, which we assume to be a whistleblower within the US Department of Defence,” the statement said. In a separate statement, the Telegram group said an acquaintance had received the documents through an anonymous source.

The group claims to be run by independent journalists and that it is not “Iran-affiliated”, but it refers to the Israeli Government as the “Zionist regime” and uses Tehran time as a baseline.

The New York Times reported that the documents have been discussed by largely pro-Iran accounts on Telegram since Friday local time.

The documents do not appear to be a comprehensive assessment of Israeli intentions but an assessment of developments by the US on the dates given.

An Israeli reprisal against Iran has been expected since Iran launched its own retaliatory assault on October 1, launching 200 ballistic missiles at Israeli targets in at least two waves. The Iranian attack was a response to the killings of senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders.

‘Deeply concerning’

US officials acknowledged the documents are authentic to the New York Times.

The Government is said to be investigating who had access to the alleged classified documents.

“The leak is very concerning. There’s some serious allegations being made there, an investigation under way, and I’ll get a briefing on that in a couple of hours,” Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, told CNN. “We’re following it closely.”

Two years ago, a large leak of classified material appeared on Discord including details of Ukraine’s order of battle. It was one of the biggest leaks of government secrets in US history.

On Friday local time, US President Joe Biden said during a visit to Germany that he has a good understanding of how and when Israel plans to respond to Iran’s recent ballistic missile attack.

The remarks were the first time the US has indicated that an understanding has been reached with Israel on the nature of the retaliation. Biden has previously said he opposed Israel targeting Iranian nuclear or oil sites.

The IDF said on Sunday night that it intended to strike financial institutions linked to Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group, in Beirut and other parts of Lebanon.