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Barclays playbook for the election: Stocks that win under Trump or Harris

admin — Sun, 22 Sep 2024 11:30:43 +0000

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What Warren Buffett’s recent moves say – and don’t say – about today’s market

admin — Sat, 21 Sep 2024 22:50:10 +0000

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Why this top fund manager says the best investment this year is ‘the hedge against political cycles’

admin — Sat, 21 Sep 2024 15:00:01 +0000

A major exchange-traded fund and mutual fund manager finds the winning gold trade isn’t talked about as much as the artificial intelligence trade — but maybe it should be.

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck thinks the best investment this year is “the hedge against political cycles.” To him, that means investing in gold.

“It is quietly the best performing asset this year,” Van Eck told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” from the Future Proof conference in Huntington Beach on Monday.

Gold hit another record on Friday, its 37th record this year. As of Friday’s market close, it is up 28% since the start of the year.

Van Eck, whose firm runs the VanEck Gold Miners ETF, expects foreign investments in bullion will continue to give the commodity a boost. It should also help in lifting gold miners higher, which started the year lagging the commodity. But as of Friday, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF has started to outperform, up 31% this year.

“I think you own both because the miners, if they catch up at all, it’s going to rip,” he said.

As for the AI trade, van Eck says it’s “amazing” how investors refuse to give up on it.

“It’s like part of people’s model portfolios, or core portfolios, is to have this tactical overweight to semis. And some of our biggest clients actually bought on the dip over the last week or two,” the VanEck CEO said.

Last month, his firm launched the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF. It’s a companion to its VanEck Semiconductor ETF that excludes companies that run their own foundries, such as Intel.

FactSet reports the new ETF’s top holdings as Nvidia, Broadcom and Advanced Micro Devices as of Friday.

“Why spend billions of dollars on building the chips if you don’t have to?” van Eck said. “Nvidia doesn’t build its own chips. So that’s another kind of investment strategy.”

Since launching on Aug. 28, the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF is up a half percent.

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From frustration to excitement: The long, winding road of Alphabet’s self-driving Waymo unit

admin — Sat, 21 Sep 2024 14:54:23 +0000

Alphabet ‘s self-driving car unit Waymo is finally shifting into high gear. After years of heavy investment and losses, Waymo ridership is picking up momentum in its existing West Coast markets, and the company just inked an expanded partnership with Uber to bring its robotaxi service to the ride-hailing giant’s app in Atlanta and Austin, Texas, in early 2025. That will put Waymo in five markets, including Phoenix, San Francisco and Los Angeles. Waymo and Uber are partners already in Phoenix. The ridership growth and deeper ties with Uber represent significant milestones for Waymo and its parent company, which has poured billions into the venture with seemingly little reward for investors. And the timing couldn’t be better: Waymo is flexing its muscles just weeks before electric vehicle pioneer Tesla is set to hold its hotly anticipated robotaxi event on Oct. 10. Currently, Waymo is the only commercial robotaxi service operating in the U.S. Tesla’s presentation will cast a spotlight on the broader state of autonomous driving technology, which has seen its fair share of hype and safety hurdles over the past decade-plus. While it remains a nascent industry, it’s increasingly clear Waymo will be a significant player in its evolving commercial future. “Waymo has been a big disappointment until this very day. I no longer feel it is,” Jim Cramer said shortly after the Austin and Atlanta expansion was announced last week. “This is a substantive reason to stay in Alphabet,” added Jim, who has in recent months expressed frustration with the Club stock’s performance and lamented not more aggressively trimming the position . Waymo has the potential to be “a very big business,” Jim said. GOOGL .SPX 1Y mountain Alphabet’s stock performance over the past 12 months compared with the S & P 500. A long road It’s been a long and winding road for Waymo since its inception in 2009 as Google’s self-driving car project. Seven years later, in December 2016, it graduated into a standalone company owned by Alphabet and housed in its Other Bets segment, a collection of more speculative ventures outside its core Google search engine, YouTube and cloud businesses. Its Waymo One rideshare service became available to the general public in Phoenix in 2020 . It launched with a waitlist in San Francisco in August 2023 before opening to everyone in the city three months ago. Paid service started up in Los Angeles in April . Now Atlanta and Austin are next up (currently, only Waymo employees can take rides in Austin). The robotaxi service now has about 700 autonomous vehicles on the road across its markets. Waymo has provided more than 2 million trips to date, and the pace is accelerating, which is good for revenue. Waymo doubled weekly paid rides to 100,000 in August from 50,000 in May, the company announced last month . Even before the recent Uber news, Morgan Stanley forecasted overall Waymo revenue to grow by 359% in 2024 and 109% in 2025 across Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Austin. Adding into the mix Atlanta, a city of a half-million people, figures to boost the growth rate further. To be sure, Waymo is still small. TD Cowen estimates Waymo will generate gross bookings of $72 million in 2024 — merely 0.2% of Uber’s expected amount in the U.S., and 0.5% of Lyft ‘s, according to the analysts. Some estimates on Wall Street are higher than TD Cowen’s — Bernstein is at roughly $100 million, for example — but the takeaway is the same. Nevertheless, an improving revenue outlook at Waymo is welcome news for Alphabet investors, particularly those like Jim who had grown tired of heavy losses in the Other Bets unit dragging down the earnings of Google’s mature businesses. Other Bets had $1.5 billion in revenue in 2023 — with an operating loss of $4.1 billion. Companywide revenue and operating income were $307 billion and $84 billion, respectively. Most of the revenue in Other Bets is generated by its life-sciences company Verily and GFiber, its WiFi and internet connectivity unit operating in some parts of the U.S, according to Alphabet . It’s difficult to nail down Waymo’s specific finances because Alphabet does not break out the specific companies inside Other Bets. Given that developing and deploying self-driving tech is expensive, Waymo’s losses at this stage are likely significant. But so is its long-term potential to make investors money. “It is arguably the most compelling long-term bet in terms of value creation,” Brad Erickson, analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said in an interview with CNBC. “There’s billions and billions of dollars of equity value creation opportunity there.” New funding Alphabet is leaning into that opportunity. In July, Alphabet announced a new multiyear investment in Waymo to the tune of $5 billion. Waymo has also garnered external support in previous years. In 2020, it landed $3 billion in its first round of external funding from investors including venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz and car dealer AutoNation , among others. It secured an additional $2.5 billion in 2021 . “This new round of funding, which is consistent with recent annual investment levels, will enable Waymo to continue to build the world’s leading autonomous driving technology company,” Alphabet’s then-CFO Ruth Porat said in July. Waymo can’t build the leading robotaxi business alone. Its deepening ties with Uber makes that clear. When Waymo first launched in Phoenix, users ordered a ride through the Waymo One app. That changed about a year ago , when Uber added Waymo vehicles to its app. If an Uber user calls for a ride within Waymo’s Phoenix operating zone, it might be matched with a self-driving car. A rider has to confirm the pickup. In Los Angeles and San Francisco, the Waymo One app is the lone way to summon a self-driving car. Atlanta and Austin will be different. In those cities, Waymo vehicles will only be available through the Uber app. And unlike in Phoenix, Uber also will provide some fleet management services such as cleaning and storage of the vehicles. “The fact that Waymo is choosing to enter new markets exclusively with Uber suggests positive traction in Phoenix, in our view, and speed to market advantages,” Bank of America analysts wrote in a note to clients Monday. Partnering with ride-hailing incumbents like Uber is crucial to making the business more economically viable, analysts say. The heart of that viewpoint is an important concept known as vehicle utilization, which measures the amount of time vehicles spend servicing passengers. Higher utilization means more customers are using the service, which eventually materializes into more profits to help cover costs on the depreciating vehicle asset. “Those cars cost a lot of money to put out on the road. So, if they’re not generating revenue, it’s a very poor use of capacity,” Erickson said. “The way you can generate almost instantaneous demand is to hook-in with Uber’s network.” And it’s a big one: Uber said it had 156 million monthly active consumers on its platform in the three months ended June 30. Uber had been developing its own self-driving technology before selling the unit to Aurora Innovation , known for its autonomous semi-truck venture , in 2020. That marked a clear strategy shift for Uber and CEO Dara Khosrowshahi toward partnerships like the one it has with Waymo. Uber also is working with Waymo competitor Cruise, which is owned by General Motors . Last month, Uber and Cruise entered into a multiyear partnership that could bring Cruise vehicles onto Uber’s platform as soon as 2025. Cruise will first need to relaunch its robotaxi operations after pausing them in October 2023 in the wake of a collision with a pedestrian. In that crash , a self-driving Cruise in San Francisco dragged a pedestrian about 20 feet after that person was first hit by a vehicle operated by a human driver. The incident underscored the safety challenges for autonomous vehicles, which remain a key risk for passengers, other drivers, as well as investors in the industry. Indeed, Waymo has had minor stumbles recently. The company recalled all of its 672 vehicles in June after a driverless Waymo vehicle hit a utility pole while attempting a low-speed pullover maneuver. In February, Waymo recalled 444 of its vehicles after two Waymo vehicles hit a towed pickup truck in Phoenix. In both recall scenarios, the company updated the vehicles’ software to fix issues. Earlier this year, U.S. safety regulators also opened a probe i nto Waymo’s performance. For its part, Waymo claims its vehicles make roads safer and in early September published a data dashboard showing statistics on how its cars have performed in Phoenix and San Francisco versus crash rate benchmarks for human drivers. In an interview on CNBC last week, Uber’s Khosrowshahi called Waymo the “leader” in driverless tech, touting the company’s safety record. And he suggested there’s more expansion on the horizon for autonomous taxis on the Uber platform. “I can’t predict timing, but this is a technology that is going to scale,” he said. Analysts and investors alike want to see how Waymo ridership trends in its new markets and whether the company’s rate of expansion into even more cities can accelerate. It’s unclear where Waymo may go after Austin and Atlanta, though it has mapped more than 25 cities, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. “Stepping back, if Waymo is to make meaningful strides and grow its reach in a reasonable time frame, it will have to accelerate this pace of city launches,” the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a Sept. 5 note. Waymo spokesman Ethan Teicher declined to comment on any future plans, but did say, “We’re excited about Waymo One’s growth and the positive feedback we’re getting from our riders.” In the very near future, Tesla’s robotaxi event Oct. 10 will be a pivotal moment for the autonomous driving landscape and offer a refreshed look at Waymo’s standing in it. Any details Tesla provides on its current plan to commercialize a robotaxi service, including launch timing, will be especially notable. Competition is definitely coming, but Waymo has a good head start. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long GOOGL. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

A Waymo autonomous self-driving Jaguar electric vehicle sits parked at an EVgo charging station in Los Angeles, California, on May 15, 2024.

Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty Images

Alphabet‘s self-driving car unit Waymo is finally shifting into high gear.

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Boeing machinists on picket lines prepare for lengthy strike: ‘I can last as long as it takes’

admin — Sat, 21 Sep 2024 12:03:00 +0000

Boeing factory workers gather on a picket line during the first day of a strike near the entrance of a production facility in Renton, Washington, U.S., September 13, 2024.

Matt Mills Mcknight | Reuters

RENTON, Wash. — Cash-strapped Boeing is facing mounting costs from an ongoing machinist strike as workers push for higher pay. A failure to get a deal done could be even more expensive.

In the shadow of a factory outside Seattle where Boeing makes its best-selling planes, picketing Boeing machinists told CNBC they have saved up money and have taken or are considering taking side jobs in landscaping, furniture moving or warehouse work to make ends meet if the strike is goes on much longer.

The work stoppage by Boeing’s factory workers in the Pacific Northwest just entered its second week. The financial cost of the strike on Boeing depends on how long it lasts, though ratings agencies have warned that the company could face a downgrade if it drags on too long.

That would add to the borrowing costs of the company, already $60 billion in debt. Boeing has burned through about $8 billion so far this year in the wake of a near-catastrophic door plug blowout from one of its 737 Max planes in January.

Boeing hasn’t turned an annual profit since 2018, and its new CEO Kelly Ortberg is trying to restore the company’s reputation after months of manufacturing crises that have slowed deliveries to customers, depriving it of cash.

Boeing 737 Max planes sit at the airport in Renton, Washington.

Leslie Josephs | CNBC

At the local union office in Renton, machinists were preparing for what may become a lengthy strike: Union members carried in large pallets of bottled water, while someone mixed a giant tuna salad in the kitchen to make sandwiches for workers. Union vans visited demonstration sites around Renton offering transportation to bathroom breaks for workers on picket duty. Burn barrels provided heat for chilly overnight pickets.

Many workers spoke of their love for their jobs but fretted about the high cost of living in the Seattle area, where the majority of Boeing’s aircraft are made.

The median home price in Washington state increased about 142% to $613,000 as of 2023, from $253,800 a decade earlier, according to the state’s Office of Financial Management. That outpaces the roughly 55% increase nationally over that period, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

“We can’t afford [to own] a home,” said Jake Meyer, a Boeing mechanic who said he will start driving for a food delivery service during the strike and is looking at picking up odd jobs such as moving furniture. Meyer said although he’s striking for higher pay from Boeing, he enjoys the job of building airplanes.

“I take pride in my work,” he said.

Another Boeing machinist said he has been saving for months, forgoing things such as restaurants and paying three months of mortgage payments early.

“I can last as long as it takes,” said the worker, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

$50 million a day

More than 30,000 Boeing machinists walked off the job at midnight Sept. 13 after turning down a tentative labor deal in a nearly 95% vote — 96% voted in favor of a strike. They received their last paychecks Thursday, and health benefits are set to end on Sept. 30. A strike fund from the union will soon give them $250 a week.

The strike is costing Boeing some $50 million a day, according to estimates by Bank of America aerospace analyst Ron Epstein. The strike halted production of most of Boeing’s aircraft, and that is rippling out to the aerospace giant’s vast network of suppliers, some of which have already been told to halt shipments. Boeing is still making 787 Dreamliners at its non-union factory in South Carolina.

Boeing Machinists union members count votes to accept or reject a proposed contract between Boeing and union leaders and whether or not to strike if the contract is rejected, at the Aerospace Machinists Union Hall in Seattle, Washington, on September 12, 2024.

Jason Redmond | AFP | Getty Images

The battle pits a struggling Boeing against a workforce seeking wage increases and other improvements. Boeing’s most recent offer included 25% general wage increases over a four-year deal and was endorsed by the machinists union, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers District 751.

Workers said they were looking for wage increases closer to the 40% that the union had proposed as well as annual bonuses and a restoration of pensions lost more than a decade ago.

Boeing and the union were at the negotiation table this week, but both Boeing and union negotiators have said they were disappointed with the lack of progress.

“We continue to prioritize the issues you defined in the most recent survey,” union negotiators wrote to members Wednesday, “yet we are deeply concerned that the company has not addressed your top concerns. No meaningful progress was made during today’s talks.”

Ortberg, who is just six weeks on the job, announced temporary furloughs this week of tens of thousands of Boeing staff, including managers and executives, on the heels of a hiring freeze and other cost-cutting measures announced this week.

“During mediation with the union this week, we continued our good faith efforts to engage the union’s bargaining committee in meaningful negotiations to address the feedback we’ve heard from our team,” Ortberg said in a note to staff Friday.

“While we are disappointed the discussions didn’t lead to more progress, we remain very committed to reaching an agreement as soon as possible that recognizes the hard work of our employees and ends the work stoppage in the Pacific Northwest,” Ortberg wrote.

The strike, which includes Boeing machinists in the Seattle area, Oregon and a few other locations, is just the latest in a series of labor battles in recent years that has included actors, autoworkers, port workers and airline employees, all of which have won raises after strikes or strike threats.

The Biden administration has encouraged Boeing and the union to reach a deal.

“I do believe that both parties want to get to a resolution here, and hoping to see one that makes sense for the workers and it works for a company that really needs to find its way forward on so many fronts,” Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday.

Tight labor market

Boeing is facing a tight labor market. During the last strike, in 2008, which lasted less than two months, the company was in better financial shape, and there was less job competition in the area.

One Boeing supplier told CNBC that furloughing or laying off workers would cause problems for months down the road because it takes so long to train staff on such technical and detailed work.

During the pandemic, Boeing and its suppliers shed thousands of workers. They’ve since struggled to hire and train workers in time for the resurgence in air travel and aircraft demand.

“You’re in an environment where skilled, technical labor is hard to get right now, particularly in aerospace and defense,” said Bank of America’s Epstein. “So what do you do to not only retain them but attract them? If they really want a pension, maybe that gives you a competitive advantage over people who are trying to attract talent.”

Cramer’s Lighting Round: Dominion Energy is a buy

admin — Fri, 20 Sep 2024 22:57:12 +0000

Dominion Energy’s year-to-date stock performance.

Dutch Bros’ year-to-date stock performance.

Dutch Bros: “I like Dutch Bros, I’m glad that they slowed their expansion…”

Super Micro Computer’s year-to-date stock performance.

LyondellBasell’s year-to-date stock performance.

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Cramer’s week ahead: New inflation data and earnings from Costco, KB Home

admin — Fri, 20 Sep 2024 22:46:51 +0000

CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Friday walked investors through next week’s notable Wall Street action, pointing to quarterly reports from Costco and KB Home, as well as new economic data that could inform the Federal Reserve’s next decision about interest rates.

But regardless of the week’s events, Cramer said the Fed’s successful start to the easing cycle is leading the market in a positive direction.

“We’re in a rate cut cycle now, ok, it’s very different from, from the last couple years. So, the backdrop is now friendly. Don’t treat it with hostility, please,” he said. “When the Fed wants to be your friend, the best way to try to make money is by embracing the Fed’s friendship.”

Monday brings remarks from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, which Cramer said could provide more information about why the central bank cut rates by 50 basis points instead of a more modest 25. But he said the biggest event of the day will be initial data about sales of Apple‘s new iPhone, which some analysts said may disappoint. Cramer reiterated his “own it, don’t trade it” mantra on the stock.

On Tuesday, KB Home will post earnings and Cramer said he hopes the company can shed light on the state of the housing market, adding that it’s the “most intractable part of the now-waning inflationary economy.” Next year should be better for the homebuilder than 2024 because the Fed is lowering rates, he added. Also on Tuesday, computer developer Hewlett Packard will showcase some of its new artificial intelligence-enabled technology.

Semiconductor outfit Micron will report earnings on Wednesday along with Cintas, which supplies a range of materials, including uniforms, to businesses. Cintas may be able to provide information about the state of small businesses, Cramer said. He also pointed out that Micron’s stock has been crushed, and it could be a good buy here.

Retail grocery giant Costco reports on Thursday, and Cramer will be paying attention to which products are and aren’t selling. He noted that its stock has been performing well and said he thinks it will continue to do so.

On Friday, the Commerce Department will release the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key metric for the Fed as members weigh their next interest rate decision. Cramer said these figures will trigger “a whole new guessing game” on Wall Street about how many rate cuts — and by how many basis points — the Fed will implement, if at all, over the next few months.

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RH CEO explains why his company doesn’t have a social media presence

admin — Fri, 20 Sep 2024 22:41:24 +0000

RH CEO Gary Friedman told CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Friday why the upscale home furnishing retailer doesn’t have any official social media accounts, saying paid promotions by online influencers aren’t authentic.

“The great brands that stand the test of time, they earn it, right,” Friedman said. “They tell the truth. And, you know, having fake fans and people you pay talk about you on Instagram or TikTok or whatnot, it’s not the truth.”

Friedman conceded that social media has exploded, and “the digital visualization and connectivity is real.” However, he said that if consumers aren’t interested in our showing enthusiasm for the brand, RH should do better work, not pay others to talk about the company. He claimed that RH still has a solid presence online, but not because of paid influencing or social media marketing on the company’s part.

RH reported an earnings beat earlier this month, and its stock is up a little over 18% year-to-date. Formerly known as Restoration Hardware, the luxury retailer is expanding its national and global presence, with plans to open locations in London, Paris, Milan and Madrid. Friedman projected confidence about the future of his company and the housing market in general, noting that RH has bought back $3.7 billion in shares over the past several years.

He also discussed how higher tariffs could affect business, but suggested it may not be an obstacle particularly difficult to overcome. He said “supply chases demand,” and that RH is good at creating demand. Friedman noted that when tariffs increased in the past, the company moved a significant part of its upholstery business back to the U.S., adding that it has a sofa factory in North Carolina.

“You have to be flexible, you have to be fast,” Friedman said. “There’s always going to be obstacles like that.”

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Stocks making the biggest moves midday: FedEx, Nike, Constellation Energy and more

admin — Fri, 20 Sep 2024 20:06:58 +0000

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Goldman Sachs’ Naison-Tarajano: Rate cut was ‘a bit of a hedge’ for the economy

admin — Fri, 20 Sep 2024 20:05:46 +0000

Sara Naison-Tarajano, Goldman Sachs Private Wealth global head of capital markets, joins CNBC’s ‘Closing Bell’ to discuss reactions to the Fed’s rate cut decision, market outlooks, and more.

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Markets - Thomson 158 Reuters

Barclays playbook for the election: Stocks that win under Trump or Harris

What Warren Buffett’s recent moves say – and don’t say – about today’s market

Why this top fund manager says the best investment this year is ‘the hedge against political cycles’

From frustration to excitement: The long, winding road of Alphabet’s self-driving Waymo unit

Boeing machinists on picket lines prepare for lengthy strike: ‘I can last as long as it takes’

$50 million a day

Tight labor market

Read more CNBC airline news

Cramer’s Lighting Round: Dominion Energy is a buy

Jim Cramer’s Guide to Investing

Cramer’s week ahead: New inflation data and earnings from Costco, KB Home

Jim Cramer’s Guide to Investing

RH CEO explains why his company doesn’t have a social media presence

Jim Cramer’s Guide to Investing

Stocks making the biggest moves midday: FedEx, Nike, Constellation Energy and more

Goldman Sachs’ Naison-Tarajano: Rate cut was ‘a bit of a hedge’ for the economy