Federal Lyons MP Brian Mitchell says he’s happy to stand aside to let former Tasmanian Labor leader Rebecca White contest the ultra-marginal battleground seat at the next federal election.
Speculation is mounting Ms White is considering a move from state parliament, with federal Labor powerbrokers of the view she’s more likely to win the seat than Mr Mitchell.
She’s yet to declare if she’ll seek party preselection, and did not respond to a request for comment.
Brian Mitchell (centre) says Rebecca White is “obviously very popular in Lyons for the right reasons, because she’s a terrific local politician”.
Addressing the speculation on Tuesday, Mr Mitchell, who has held the seat since 2016, said he intended to seek preselection, but declared Ms White was “once-in-a-generation talent in Tasmania”.
He said he was “fully supportive” if she decided to seek federal office.
“The return of the Labor government is the most important thing on my mind,” he said.
“And if I think Rebecca White has the best chance of ensuring that happens, and I do, then I’m very happy to see Rebecca take her place in the federal Labor party.”
One expert says Rebecca White’s “really high personal vote in the state election might translate over to the next federal election” for Labor.
Mr Mitchell has won the seat at the last three federal elections, but only defeated Liberal candidate Susie Bower by 0.9 per cent at the last federal election.
“Unfortunately, unlike me, the margin is quite slim,” Mr Mitchell said.
“But Rebecca is obviously very popular in Lyons for the right reasons, because she’s a terrific local politician. She has wonderful skills as a campaigner, but also she’s a very practical, hardworking person.
“So I’ve got no doubt that she would be a very strong contender to retain the seat of Lyons for the Labor government, and that’s the most important thing.”
Winning Lyons at next year’s federal election is seen as key for the Labor party if it’s to hold off the Coalition and win a second term.
‘Younger, female candidate might be a good look’, expert says
A state Lyons MP since the 2010 election, Ms White became state Labor leader in 2017.
She lost the leadership to David O’Byrne after her second state election defeat in 2021, but returned to the role just two months later after he stepped down.
She decided not to re-contest the leadership after her party’s third straight election loss in 2024, and was replaced by Dean Winter.
She enjoyed a huge first preference vote at the last three state election campaigns, topping the poll in Lyons each time.
And in 2024, she received 15,607 first preference votes, more than 7,300 than the next most popular candidate, Liberal frontbencher Guy Barnett.
Tasmanian Liberal senator Jonathon Duniam said the move to install Ms White as a federal candidate was a case of a “failed Labor leader being gifted a seat to try and win it back for the Labor party”. (ABC News: Maren Preuss)
Robert Hortle, the deputy director of the University of Tasmania’s policy exchange, said that big personal popularity was a key factor in why federal Labor powerbrokers were considering preselecting Ms White at the expense of Mr Mitchell.
“The state seat of Lyons has exactly the same boundaries as the federal seat of Lyons, so federal Labor seems to be banking on the idea that Rebecca White’s really high personal vote in the state election might translate over to the next federal election,” he said.
“Brian Mitchell’s done pretty well to retain that seat but his margin has been reducing, indicating maybe a longer-term loss of popularity … but I think there’s definitely a sense that having a younger, female candidate might be a good look at this point in time.”
Dr Hortle said he shared Mr Mitchell’s view that Ms White had a better chance of defeating Ms Bower, and hanging onto the seat of Lyons for Labor.
But he said ensuring a smooth transition would be key.
“You’re already seeing discussions about ‘ooh is Brian Mitchell being pushed out’ and that sort of thing, I think if this narrative takes hold it will make it really tough for them to hold the seat,” he said.
“If they can nail the transition, it all looks very natural [and] Brian Mitchell steps aside gracefully then great; but if that narrative takes hold of [Mr Mitchell being pushed out] and this is federal Labor stepping in then it could go pretty badly for them.”
Mr Winter said on the weekend that Ms White had his blessing to contest the seat, if that was what she wanted to do.
“She’s somebody who we’ve got enormous respect for, and I think the people of Lyons have an enormous affection for Rebecca,” he said.
“So whatever she chooses to do whether that’s next year, five or 10 years, she’ll have my support to do.”
Tasmanian Liberal senator Jonathon Duniam said the move to install Ms White as a federal candidate smacked of a “failed Labor leader being gifted a seat to try and win it back for the Labor party”.
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