Robust jobs market makes a RBA rate cut this year very unlikely

Peter Hannam

Any way you slice it, Australia’s labour market has been going gangbusters for most of this year and September turned out to be no exception (despite the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, bracing everyone for a downward arrow).

Every state bar South Australia posted a lower jobless rate (seasonally adjusted) compared with August. Among the big economies, Western Australia led the way at 3.6%, down from 3.9%, with New South Wales also back into the “3s” at 3.7% from 4.1%. Queensland, which goes to the polls in a bit over a week, didn’t do too badly either, at 4.1%, easing from 4.2%, and Victoria’s eased by a similar margin to 4.4%.

The lowest jobless rate in the land award went to the ACT (which handily goes to the polls this weekend). It fell to 3.4% from 3.8% (cue moaning in some media about government staff levels bulking up). South Australia’s increase to 4.3% from 3.9% in August was the only laggard.

As the ABS notes, employment over the past year has risen at 3.1% versus population’s 2.5% growth rate.

A generally downbeat NAB survey out at the same time as the jobs figures showed finding staff remains a challenge:

Expectations for employment in three and 12 months edged down slightly, but the share of firms reporting availability of labour as a constraint edged back up to 82% (from 79%).

In such conditions, shy of a sharply lower inflation result for the September quarter (out from the ABS on 30 October), the RBA looks unlikely to lower its cash rate soon. Perhaps a jump in inflation (though not very likely) might put another rate rise back on the agenda?

The LNP candidate for Gregory in the upcoming Queensland election, Sean Dillon, has told 4BC radio he was assaulted and threatened near his home by two people.

He alleged he was told “shut your union bashing mouth” by two people, and thrown on the bonnet of his car.

Dillon told the station the incident was “terrifying” and “pretty horrific”, occurring 20km from his house after he pulled over to assist someone.

I was physically accosted at that point, and it was pretty explicit … the instructions about what they thought around my continued involvement in politics and what I should or shouldn’t do.

Dillon said he was in shock afterwards, because “it was the last thing that you expect as a political candidate”. He said the alleged offenders did not have their faces covered, but were not known to him.

Dillon said he has good relationships with various union members, and “there’s certainly no union bashing when it comes to me”.

Queensland police confirmed it received a complaint in relation to an alleged assault on 27 August, around 6.30pm, at the intersection of Eulimbie Road and Clermont Alpha Road in Alpha.

Police said investigations are continuing.

Peter Hannam

Stocks pared gains before release of jobs figures

Underscoring the strength of the jobs figures and the reduced chance of an early RBA interest rate cut, the Australian dollar jumped about 0.2 of a US cent to US66.9c and stocks pared their gains for the day to 0.85% from 1.15% just before the release of the jobs figures.

Peter Hannam

Job additions should lift total since Albanese took office to more than 1 million

Economists had also expected the economy to add a net 25,000 jobs. Instead, more than 51,000 full-time positions alone were added with more than 12,000 part-time roles added as well.

Unless there are revisions to previous months’ tallies, the September job additions should lift the total since the Albanese government took office to more than 1 million new jobs.

Peter Hannam

More on the latest job figures

The jobless rate for September was 4.1%, lower than the 4.2% rate expected by economists. The ABS also revised lower the August unemployment rate to 4.1%, meaning the month to month rate was unchanged.

Australia’s jobless rate holds at 4.1% as economy adds 64,100 jobs

Peter Hannam

Australia’s employers added more than 64,000 jobs last month, most of them full-time, making it less likely the Reserve Bank will cut its key interest rate this side of Christmas.

More to come.

Victorian police are investigating after a three-year-old child was hit by a car in Melbourne earlier this morning.

Police believe a vehicle struck the child at the intersection of James Cook Drive and Heatherton Road, in Endeavour Hills, about 8.30am.

The three-year-old was taken to hospital with life-threatening injuries. The driver, a 24-year-old Endeavour Hills man, stopped at the scene and is speaking with police.

The exact circumstances surrounding the collision are yet to be established, police said, and the investigation remains ongoing. Anyone with information is urged to contact Crime Stoppers.

Benita Kolovos

Victorian opposition slams greyhound motion from Animal Justice Party MP

The Victorian opposition spokesperson for racing, Tim Bull, has had a crack at Labor for supporting a motion by Animal Justice party MP Georgie Purcell to introduce further transparency measures for greyhound racing dog deaths.

The motion, which passed parliament’s upper house yesterday, will force Greyhound Racing Victoria (GRV) to report how many dogs are killed off track and the reasons for their deaths, as well a breakdown of all rehoming, including dogs sent overseas and interstate.

But Bull said the new measures were “unachievable and costly”. He said in a statement:

You cannot allow the Animal Justice party, with one MP out of 128, to dictate greyhound governance from the parliament chamber. It is a ridiculous notion. I am stunned the minister would side with an MP who publicly states she wishes to end greyhound racing. He is running with the foxes and hunting with the hounds.

GRV already has in place a microchipping program that tracks the location, custody and medical history of Victorian greyhounds throughout their lives, however it has no power to command members of the general public to report a second change of ownership of a pet greyhound. This is not the job of GRV and falls within council pet registration.

Apart from being impossible to implement, as GRV simply does not have these powers, it is a process that would come at cost in a period when declining betting turnover is impacting all codes.

For more on Purcell’s motion, you can have a read below:

Sharlotte Thou

People with asthma urged to stay vigilant as thunderstorm asthma season begins next month

People with hay fever are urged to stay alert this thunderstorm asthma season which starts in November and mainly affects south-east Australia.

According to Prof Jo Douglass from Asthma Australia, many thunderstorm asthma sufferers believe they only suffer from hay fever.

In 2016, only a third of the 3,500 who presented at Victorian hospitals with thunderstorm asthma had previously suffered from asthma. Almost nine in 10 had previously had hay fever.

She said it was important for hay fever sufferers to recognise symptoms associated with asthma, such as night waking and morning wheezing.

Those suffering from asthma and hay fever are encouraged to check pollen levels, ensure their asthma action plan is up to date, use a preventer inhaler and keep hay fever under control.

Caitlin Cassidy

University of Melbourne’s chancellor backs condemnation of actions of some pro-Palestine protesters

The University of Melbourne’s chancellor has expressed “full support” for the vice-chancellor’s condemnation of the actions of some pro-Palestine protesters during a sit-in last week.

Last Wednesday, a group of students, staff and alumni occupied the office of a Jewish staff member in a bid for the university to cut their ties with universities in Israel, some masked and wearing Palestinian keffiyehs.

Jane Hansen confirmed the university council met on campus on Wednesday as part of its usual cycle of meetings. She said there were no specific items or resolutions about these matters, however council expressed its full support for previous statements made by the vice-chancellor and senior staff in relation to the protest.

Around two dozen protesters gathered at the same time on campus, alleging more actions were coming and sit ins were “not violent”.

Hanson said:

Intentional acts of antisemitism, intimidation, violence or vilification against members of our community are completely unacceptable, as is any threat to the principles of academic freedom.

On Tuesday, deputy vice-chancellors Prof Mark Cassidy and Prof Michael Wesley wrote to staff reiterating international research was “fundamental” to the university and staff and students “must be free to undertake their work without fear or intimidation”.

Sarah Basford Canales

McBride to have appeal heard next March in bid to have jail sentence thrown out or reduced

The former army lawyer David McBride will have his appeal heard next March in a bid to throw out, or reduce, his jail sentence.

McBride is serving time in Canberra’s Alexander Maconochie Centre after he was sentenced to five years and eight months for pleading guilty to three charges in November 2023 of stealing commonwealth information and passing that to journalists at the ABC.

The material was used as the basis for a 2017 investigative series exposing alleged war crimes by Australian defence force personnel in Afghanistan, titled the Afghan Files.

McBride was given a non-parole period of 27 months and will remain in jail until at least August 2026 if his appeal is unsuccessful.

His appeal will be heard on 3 March 2025 in the ACT supreme court and is expected to last for a day.

McBride’s legal team is seeking to appeal against the convictions and the severity of the sentence on the basis McBride believed it was his duty to release the information in the public interest.

McBride’s lawyer, Eddie Lloyd, told Guardian Australia earlier this month McBride will argue he took an oath to serve the country and uphold the rule of law and, for that reason, felt he had “a duty to the public” to “blow the whistle”.

Victorian premier hints at major housing announcement

Benita Kolovos

The Victorian premier, Jacinta Allan, has suggested she will be making a significant announcement on housing soon.

Speaking outside parliament this morning, Allan said the lack of affordable housing could be to blame for the nation’s falling birth rate:

There are many reasons why women, why families choose to have kids and to have a certain number of kids, and these are really personal decisions. Yes, they are influenced by economic circumstances, whether you can get into a home, whether you can get into a home that’s close to your family supports. This is why building more homes is so important and building them in exactly the locations that Victorians are looking.

She said Victorians want to live “close to where they grew up” but are priced out:

Many want to live close to mum and dad or their family networks, so that when they have kids they’ve got that support network around them. Because I can tell you, it takes a village to raise a child. I’m blessed to have my family support me and as we are raising our kids, and that is true for so many Victorians.

If you live an hour more away from your family support, that makes it harder and harder, and that’s why building more homes, particularly in and around the suburbs of Melbourne, is so vitally important … That is why, very soon, I’ll be having a lot more to say about how we are going to do a lot more to build more homes in and around the suburbs of Melbourne.