Nike’s CEO is stepping down, and some on Wall Street appear to be lukewarm about the news. On Thursday after the bell, the sneaker giant announced CEO John Donahoe will be retiring Oct. 13. Elliott Hill, who worked at the company for 32 years before retiring in 2020, will take over the position the following day. While UBS views the change as a positive one for the stock in the near term, adding that Hill has the potential to put Nike back on a path toward growth, the firm warns that any upside momentum may already be losing steam. “With this catalyst now in the past, our guess is the market’s focus will turn to Nike fundamentals and its earnings announcement on October 1st,” analyst Jay Sole wrote in a Thursday note to clients. “We think sentiment could turn more bearish as the market realizes Nike’s fundamentals likely aren’t great … and there are probably no quick-fixes to Nike’s issues.” Sole kept his neutral rating on the stock and has a price target of $78, which implies more than 3% downside from Thursday’s close. This year, shares of Nike have already plunged about 20%. NKE YTD mountain NKE, year-to-date Morgan Stanley called the change “unsurprising” given that there is still a “big hill ahead” for the company. The investment firm believes a reduction in Nike’s full-year forecast is now likely during its upcoming first-quarter earnings report for fiscal 2025. If estimates are cut, analyst Alex Straton speculates that the stock’s positive but “somewhat muted” reaction to the change may fade as investors cope with the company’s fundamentals possibly getting worse before getting better over the next year. Straton has an equal weight rating on the stock, with a price target of $79, or more than 2% downside from Thursday’s close. Others, however, have become more bullish on Nike following the decision. Wells Fargo maintained its overweight rating and increased its target by $9 to $95, implying more than 17% upside ahead. “We expect multiple expansion commensurate with Hill’s hire — as leadership has been a large point of contention and controversy surrounding the stock,” analyst Ike Boruchow wrote in a note. “Further, green shoots in wholesale have been emerging (including positive commentary from the likes DKS, FL, ASO, and JD Sports) as it can be argued that the majority of bad news in the story is largely behind us at this point. With a CEO change announced, bulls now gain visibility.” Bank of America also maintained its rating at buy and believes this is a first step toward turning around the company. Bernstein, which has an outperform rating on Nike, expects the turnaround “will take time,” but said market sentiment will be sympathetic. Their targets imply more than 28% and 34% upside, respectively, as of Thursday’s close. “There is much that still needs to change, including making a slow design process more nimble, reinstating feedback loops to understand changing consumer tastes, and clearing out stale product to make room for new innovation,” Bernstein analyst Aneesha Sherman wrote in a Thursday note. “But we believe the market will be more forgiving of a slow and steady pace of change if they have confidence the right leader is in charge.”
