HOUSTON – Hurricane Rafael has moved ashore in Cuba as a powerful Category 3 storm with winds of 115 mph.

As of 4 p.m. Wednesday, it is moving northwest at 13 mph, which will bring it into the Gulf of Mexico.

It is expected to move further into the Gulf and the forecast cone may look a little concerning to Southeast Texas.

There are a few reasons we aren’t expecting it to have a direct impact on the Houston area.

Where is Rafael going?

Weak steering currents have allowed Rafael to make a westerly turn. This matches what one of the models, the European model, had been saying might happen for the last couple of days.

Rafael should continue moving into the western Gulf of Mexico, but there are some factors working against it in terms of both its movement and strength that should keep it from directly impacting our area.

First, Rafael should begin to weaken the further it moves into the Gulf. The waters are now cooler than they were earlier in the year and will be less conducive for a strengthening storm. So regardless of where Rafael ultimately goes, it will more than likely be a much weaker system by the time it gets where it ultimately is going. In fact, it is possible that Rafael never makes landfall as an organized system as it could fall apart in the Gulf.

Second, the steering mechanism basically falls apart as Rafael moves into the Gulf. This will allow Rafael to meander for a bit out in the Gulf. This would be a problem if this happened near shore or onshore, but right now it looks like it will be too far offshore to be an issue besides some increased surf and rip currents at the area beaches.

On top of that, it appears a cold front will enter the picture early next week, blocking Rafael from moving north into Texas.

Bottom line, it is worth keeping an eye on, but the data we have right now gives us confidence Rafael won’t be a huge problem for Southeast Texas and perhaps not even the entire State of Texas at all.