The outcome of this year’s presidential election could bode well for different parts of the stock market, according to Evercore ISI. The firm ran a quantitative screen of its top stock picks under a victory scenario in which Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris would win, and another in which Republican candidate Donald Trump emerges victorious. Both candidates are in a dead heat heading into next week’s election, according to an NBC News poll released earlier this month . Here are the names Evercore ISI analysts think could benefit under either White House scenario: Winners under a second Trump presidency are in sectors of the market that would benefit most from a deregulatory push, namely financials and oil and gas companies, according to Emanuel. Losers would lie within sectors that are most exposed to Trump’s renewed bigger trade wars, including autos and agriculture, he noted. Halliburton and Exxon Mobil are two energy stocks that could get a boost from Trump’s push to further solidify the U.S.’ dominance in fossil fuel production. The U.S. is already the world’s largest oil and gas producer. Halliburton would benefit from “unleashing” domestic energy capacity as the country’s dominant pressure pumping company, Evercore ISI thinks. Oil and gas giant Exxon would also see capital flow to traditional energy sources, benefitting the company’s strategy. Halliburton shares are down 22% this year, while Exxon has added 17%. Ulta Beauty could also see tailwinds from a second Trump presidency, as it could lead to more tariffs on Chinese imports. “Trump will be positive for US-only retailers (which have higher tax rates vs retailers with int’l exposure),” Evercore ISI said. “ULTA has no sourcing from China, and operates in one of the most resilient discretionary categories.” Ulta’s stock is down 22% year to date. Shares have been under pressure since the specialty retailer cut its full-year 2024 forecast in August. Ulta CEO Dave Kimbell said earlier this month that the company is grappling with tougher competition and a more volatile consumer — but reiterated confidence in long-term growth. Tesla ‘s another potential beneficiary given Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s close relationship with Trump, according to the firm. The electric vehicle maker’s shares are up 4.4% year to date. Under a Harris win, these stocks could benefit, per Evercore ISI: Evercore ISI forecasts Harris winners to be renewable energy and EV companies, as that administration is expected to maintain the Inflation Reduction Act and other clean energy policies. Health insurance companies linked to Affordable Care Act and Medicaid should also benefit, as Harris is expected to boost enrollment in those programs rather than let them expire at the end of 2025. NextEra Energy is a name that could benefit from the certainty of tax credit extensions for renewables under Harris. Discount retailers such as Burlington and Ross Stores are another likely beneficiary of a Democratic win, according to Evercore ISI. “A blue sweep would likely benefit the lowest income consumers and within our space, BURL has the lowest income demographics AND a bigger margin opportunity than ROST,” Emanuel said about the two outperform-rated stocks. Burlington shares have raced past the broader market this year, gaining nearly 31%. Analysts polled by LSEG think there’s more room to go for the department store, with the average price target indicating upside of more than 20%. Ross, meanwhile, is flat for the year. A slew of tech companies, namely Apple , Dell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise , could fare well with a Harris win given the risk of lower tariffs. Cybersecurity giants Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike could also benefit from increased investments in infrastructure for maritime ports, power grids, water supply and communication networks that are likely to continue under a Harris presidency, per Evercore ISI. “Biden/Harris have already allocated funding for cybersecurity defenses for state and local governments to modernize their network security and is likely to push for further federal investments in securing national infrastructure which has been part of his agenda,” Emanuel said.
