Four years ago, Labor achieved what many political pundits considered impossible — turning two long-held blue seats red in South East Queensland.
Now the Sunshine Coast electorates of Caloundra and Nicklin are again setting the scene for another knife-edge battle, which could ultimately determine who will hold government.
Labor MP Rob Skelton holds Nicklin by the slimmest of margins at 0.01 per cent, having won the seat by just 84 votes in 2020.
Just a short drive south, his Labor colleague MP Jason Hunt is also feeling the pressure with a 2.5 per cent margin.
Jason Hunt defied the odds in 2020 by winning the Caloundra seat held by retiring LNP member Mark McArdle for 16 years.
Both electorates are considered working class with the median weekly household incomes below the state and national averages.
Nicklin business owner Rebecca Galler says she will be voting for the party that best understands small businesses.
(ABC Sunshine Coast: Janel Shorthouse)
Small businesses under pressure
In Nicklin’s Woombye, the cost of living and pressure on small businesses to stay afloat is weighing heavily on voters.
When cafe owner Rebecca Galler recently faced rising operational costs, like many other small business owners, she said she had no choice but to work harder.
“We’ve worked too hard and come this far to be pushed under and priced out,” Ms Galler said.
“Australia is built on small business, and we need to ensure these businesses aren’t sold out to larger corporations.
“I’ll be voting for the candidate that understands small business.”
Nicklin is also a region packed with young families.
The median age of residents is 44, according to the latest Census data.
Cassia Knight says abortion is an issue weighing heavily on her mind this election. (Supplied: Cassia Knight)
When Kenilworth stay-at-home mum Cassia Knight reflected on the upcoming election, an issue she did not expect to weigh so heavily on her mind was women’s rights.
“With everything going on with the cost of living, I never thought female body autonomy would become such an important issue to me,” Ms Knight said.
“It’s a huge, simple step and if freedom of choice is taken away from women, we’re on a slippery slope to where the US is now … It’s scary.”
Concerns over big growth
When retiree Graeme Smith moved to Caloundra eight years ago, he loved the region’s natural beauty.
With the recent population boom, livability has become a key issue for him.
Graeme Smith is concerned about the rapid growth of Caloundra. (Supplied: Graeme Smith)
The electorate has experienced the biggest annual population growth for any regional centre, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
“Being able to move around has become much more difficult,” Mr Smith said, noting the lack of infrastructure for walking and cycling.
“The increase in population demands we do more of that, but the facilities just aren’t in place.”
The population is increasing in electorates such as Caloundra on the Sunshine Coast. (ABC Sunshine Coast: Owen Jacques)
Mr Smith said he was also concerned about environmental issues such as water quality in the Pumicestone Passage.
“Governments have taken the easy way out because it’s managed under the marine park,” he said.
“But without proper management, in 50 years we won’t have it.
“The waterways need proactive management — it’s an urgent matter.”
Nicklin on a knife edge
Spanning 686 square kilometres, the Nicklin seat covers the hinterland communities of Cooroy, Yandina, Nambour, Woombye, Palmwoods, Mapleton and Kenilworth.
Nicklin was held by Independent Peter Wellington for 19 years from 1998 until his retirement in 2017 when Marty Hunt first won the seat for the LNP.
He was then defeated by Mr Skelton in 2020 but is returning as an LNP candidate for Saturday’s election.
The ALP’s Rob Skelton at the Nambour pre-poll with voters ahead of the Queensland election. (Supplied: Anges Skelton)
Mr Skelton joined the Navy in 1995 after finishing school in Townsville.
He transferred to the RAAF to train as an aviation firefighter in 2002 before moving to the region.
Marty Hunt, a long-serving Queensland Police officer, has strong ties to the local area, particularly through his work in the Nambour Police Citizens Youth Club, which has made him a prominent figure in the community.
Marty Hunt is once again running for the LNP in Nicklin. (ABC Sunshine Coast: Janel Shorthouse)
Alongside Mr Skelton and Marty Hunt, Nicklin candidates also include Phillip Eschler (Family First), Sue Etheridge (The Greens), Rebecca McCosker (One Nation), Steve Dickson (Independent), and Melody Lindsay (Legalise Cannabis Queensland).
Steve Dickson, a former MP and ex-One Nation leader, re-entered politics after stepping down in 2018 following a scandal in a US strip club.
In 2020, Labor showed strength in polling places like Mapleton, while the LNP dominated early and postal votes.
Battle for seaside seat
Caloundra, on Queensland’s southern Sunshine Coast, covers a mix of coastal communities like Golden Beach, Pelican Waters and Currimundi, as well as hinterland areas such as Landsborough and Beerwah.
The retirement of LNP MP Mark McArdle made the seat marginal in 2020 but there were few expectations that Labor would gain a 5.9 per cent swing and win.
Caloundra Labor MP Jason Hunt won the seat at the 2020 election. (ABC Sunshine Coast: Owen Jacques)
The 2020 election saw Labor perform well in polling places like Baringa, but with a historically conservative voter base, the LNP is expected to put up a strong challenge in the election.
Labor’s Jason Hunt is a former custodial officer and the LNP’s Kendall Morton is a local business leader and mother of four.
LNP candidate Kendall Morton (centre) with deputy opposition leader Jarrod Bleijie and opposition leader David Crisafulli. (ABC Sunshine Coast: Amy Sheehan)
In addition to Jason Hunt and Mr Morton, Caloundra’s 2024 candidate line-up includes Mike Jessop (Independent), Ben Storch (One Nation), Peta Higgs (The Greens), Pamela Mariko (Animal Justice Party), and Allison McMaster (Legalise Cannabis Queensland).
Mike Jessop, an Independent candidate for Caloundra, is facing criminal and weapons charges. He has denied all charges.
